The battle for Texas has lost a bit of its luster without Dak Prescott, as the early returns from Cooper Rush and Trey Lance haven't offered much hope.
Previously, we had Houston in primetime in Weeks 9 and 10, and they stumbled against the Jets and Lions, but our plays were pretty solid. I'm going right back to the well on one of those picks tonight. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Texans vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: Monday Night Football
Joe Mixon More Than 21 Rush Attempts
Mixon cruised past this line on Thursday Night Football two weeks back, helping us to a perfect night. He piled up another 25 carries last week against Detroit. Mixon has had 24+ carries in all but two of his games this season.
Houston is ninth in neutral run rate since Week 7. The return of Nico Collins could allow them to lean on the passing game a bit more, but they've also lost Stefon Diggs in this stretch.
Opponents have been eager to challenge this Dallas run defense. The Cowboys have seen the sixth-most running back carries per game. Only the Panthers are allowing more rushing yards per game. Houston is a touchdown favorite, so the game script should favor the ground attack.
John Metchie Less Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
Metchie had his best game of the season in Week 10, reeling in five catches for 74 yards. The return of Nico Collins likely boots him back into a tertiary role, though.
Through the first five weeks of the season, Metchie ran just five routes. He was basically the sixth receiver behind Collins, Diggs, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson. Over the past five weeks, Metchie has run 83 routes. He's earned a target on just 15% of them, which is behind Woods and Dell. It's also behind tight ends Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover.
Collins earned a team-leading 23.2% target share when he was healthy. He might not come back to his normal snap share, but he'll get the ball when he's out there. This pick pairs well with the Mixon one, since I'm expecting Houston to lean on the run game. With Collins back and minimal passing volume available, it'll be tough for Metchie to make an impact.
CeeDee Lamb More Than 6 Receptions
Lamb and his home stadium made headlines last week, as he lost a sure touchdown in the sun. Hopefully they close the blinds this week.
Rush was legendarily bad in his first start of the season, but at least he forced the ball to Lamb. The Cowboys' alpha receiver posted a massive 34.6% target share while Rush was in the game. Lamb caught five of his six receptions from Rush. Now, he turned his six catches into just 21 yards, but efficiency doesn't matter here. We just need the catches.
Lance is looming as a potential death sentence for this passing game. He didn't take over last week until Dallas was down four scores, so hopefully Lance remains on the sidelines while this one is close.
Houston has a suffocating pass defense. They're allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game. The positive is that the Texans have ceded the eighth-most targets to wide receivers. The volume should be there with Dallas likely playing from behind.
