This might be your last chance to grab Tampa Bay to win the NFC South at a decent number. The Bucs are on top of the division at 3-1, but their odds to stay there remain slightly behind the Falcons. It's early of course, but a win here would give Tampa Bay a 2-game lead, plus a leg up in the head-to-head matchup, with a home game remaining against Atlanta.
Maybe the prudent route is to avoid this division altogether. Yeah, let's go with that.
Drake London
Less Than 62.5 Receiving Yards
This is a sell-high spot for London. He's racked up 12 catches on 21 targets over the past two weeks, but it came against two teams that rank among the top eight in man coverage rate (Kansas City and New Orleans). This is a much different matchup.
London leads the Falcons with 31 targets and a 26.1% target share. However, his production is heavily skewed toward facing man coverage. London's target share jumps to 35.9% against man coverage looks (Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2 Man) this season. London has 14 targets vs. man coverage, while Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud and Kyle Pitts have only combined for 18.
But against zone? Different story. London still leads the way in usage, but just barely. Mooney and McCloud are both within three targets and 4% target share. McCloud actually has two more receptions than London against zone coverage. Both McCloud and Mooney have better yards per route and yards per target numbers.
Tampa Bay leads the league in zone coverage rate. Their 84.4% zone rate is 2.5% higher than the next-closest team (Chargers), and the Bucs and Chargers are the only teams above 80%.
Even while dominating targets, London has maxed out at 67 receiving yards through four games. I'm expecting a more spread out target distribution given the matchup, so he'll have to be extremely efficient to top this number.
Mike Evans
Longest Reception Less Than 24.5 Yards
Evans' role has been a bit different this season, in multiple ways. The obvious change has been the emergence of Chris Godwin as the top target in this offense. Godwin's target share is nearly 5% higher than Evans' through four games. The pair were pretty even in 2023, with Evans holding a slight edge in targets and target share.
Then there's the type of targets. Evans has posted an average depth of target when targeted below 10 yards for the first time in his career. His previous career-low mark was 12.1 yards back in 2020. It's an overall trend for Tampa Bay's offense under Liam Coen, as Baker Mayfield's intended air yards per attempt is down from 8.5 in 2023 to 5.6 this season.
Atlanta's passing defense has been middling in terms of yardage allowed, but has excelled at limiting big plays. The Falcons have held opponents to the sixth-lowest yards per target, the second-lowest yards per target, and the second-fewest yards after catch per reception.
Bucky Irving
Less Than 10 Rush Attempts
I get the Irving hype. He's been far more effective running the ball than incumbent Rachaad White. I'm just not sure there's enough volume to go around in this offense.
Tampa Bay is chucking it a ton. The Buccaneers rank eighth in overall pass rate and seventh in neutral pass rate. The Bucs have had plenty of sizable leads, running the fourth-most plays when leading by seven or more. However, they're passing a healthy 60.2% of the time in those situations (third-highest). Tampa Bay ranks 25th in rushing attempts per game.
Irving played a career-high 32 snaps in Week 4. White still had the edge in snap share, but Irving narrowed the gap to the closest split yet (58% vs. 42%). The problem is that both backs earned 10 carries. It's a positive that Irving is on the field more often, but he isn't running away with the rushing share. He'll need to truly supplant White in order for us to confidently expect double-digit carries. Maybe we're trending in that direction, but right now, White is still just as involved as Irving.
