As bad as things have gone for the Jets this season, they can win tonight's game and be in first place in the AFC East. The Bills are currently atop the division, but they've dropped two straight and remain without several key players on both sides of the ball. It's a great opportunity for interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich to get off to a good start. The Jets opened as 3-point dogs, but the line has moved close to a pick'em.
We went 2-for-3 last Monday night, with Justin Watson's goose egg ruining the perfect card. Feel like we're due for a 3-0 night, so here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks: Monday Night Football
Breece Hall
More Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
This number has already moved up 6-7 yards, but there's still value here. It's an excellent buy-low spot on Hall. He's been dreadful over the past two weeks along with the rest of New York's offense, but it doesn't get much better than this matchup. Buffalo is allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry and a league-leading 2.6 yards before contact per attempt.
That YBC number is crucial here, as Hall hasn't had any running room this season. Among running backs with at least 10 carries, Hall is dead last at 0.37 yards before contact per attempt. The matchup presents a big opportunity for the Jets' offensive line to put together a strong showing.
The coaching staff shakeup in New York doesn't necessarily mean more work for Hall, but it wouldn't be a bad idea for new play caller Todd Downing to get the ball to his best player more often. He's already alluded to emphasizing the running game more often: "This team does have a strong run game. We just haven't seen it come to fruition consistently enough."
The Week 6 debacle in London that ultimately ended Robert Saleh's tenure featured 54 pass attempts from Aaron Rodgers, which doesn't seem ideal. Even with Braelon Allen's emergence, Hall still has twice as many carries as his backfield mate. I'm expecting a solid workload in a great matchup.
James Cook
More Than 0.5 Rushing+Receiving Touchdowns
Cook was constantly pushed to the side by Josh Allen and backup running backs around the goal line, but that hasn't been the case this season. He's gone from being a trap back, limited to between-the-20s work, to a rusher with an extremely valuable role.
Cook had five carries from inside the 5-yard line last season. Latavius Murray had 12, Damien Harris had three, and Leonard Fournette had one. None of those guys are even in the league anymore. Allen led the team with 14 carries inside the 5-yard line in 2023. Cook already has three carries down there this season, which is 50% of the team's total. He has four rushing touchdowns on the year, twice as many as he had in 2023. Allen has zero carries inside the 5-yard line and just two rushing touchdowns, after racking up 15 last season.
Attacking the Jets on the ground would be a wise move for the Bills. New York is allowing the fewest passing yards per game, but they've been middling against the run. I'm expecting the offense to continue to run through Cook. He remains involved in the passing game and has a receiving score this season, so he could get there through the air as well.
Keon Coleman
Less Than 36.5 Receiving Yards
As mentioned above, New York allows the fewest passing yards per game. They've been particularly tough on onside receivers, allowing just 64.2 receiving yards per game. The Jets are allowing the second-fewest yards per route and the third-fewest yards per target to receivers lined up out wide.
Coleman has run a team-leaning 96.1% of his routes out wide. He's struggled to gain a foothold in this offense, and tonight's matchup won't help. Khalil Shakir's potential absence would potentially give Coleman a boost, but it didn't do much for him last week. Coleman reeled in just one of his five targets in Week 5, though it did go for a 49-yard TD. Coleman's 16.7% target share was third on the team. He's eighth on the team in targets per route run this season.
Coleman could certainly get there on one play, but the volume should be minimal.
