Jameis Winston delivered for us on Monday. It was a vintage performance, and Winston and Jerry Jeudy smashed their lines. Javonte Williams struggled on the other side. We finished 3-for-3 without much of a sweat. If only every week was that easy!
This week's TNF game is a crucial divisional battle. Detroit comfortably won the first matchup in Lambeau and will go for the sweep at home. Green Bay is catching the Lions at a good time, as defensive injuries are piling up for Detroit.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Packers vs. Lions.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Packers vs Lions
Josh Jacobs More Than 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Josh Jacobs has taken on a clear workhorse role this season, ranking fourth in the league in carries and 11th in rushing attempt share. Jacobs has a solid 10% target share since Jordan Love returned from injury, and that has jumped up to 14.7% since Green Bay's Week 10 bye week. Jacobs has 90+ total yards in eight consecutive games.
The matchup may give you pause since Detroit has an elite run defense this season. The injuries are piling up, though, with defensive linemen D.J. Reader and Josh Paschal missing practice on Monday, as did backup defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike. Backup defensive end Mekhi Wingo went on injured reserve this week, joining fellow D-linemen Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko. Starting linebackers Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes hit the IR in mid-November. It's a banged-up group, especially up front.
Even if Detroit gets healthy and can stand up to this Green Bay ground attack, Jacobs' volume should be unrivaled. The Packers are the only team in the league running the ball as much as it passes in neutral situations at a perfect 50-50 split right now for the season. Over their past five games, the Packers' neutral run rate is up to 55.1%, including 50% in Week 9 against Detroit.
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Tucker Kraft Less Than 37.5 Receiving Yards
Tucker Kraft is coming off one of his best games of the season, but Miami allows the most targets per game to tight ends so it wasn't surprising to see him match his season high with six receptions. The absence of Romeo Doubs also helped. Detroit is a much tougher matchup for tight ends, though.
The Lions have held tight ends to the third-fewest targets and the fewest receptions and receiving yards per game. They also play more man coverage than any other team, which is bad news for Kraft since his target share drops to 8.7% against man coverage on the season, which ranks sixth on the team. He's posted a weak 0.94 yards per route run against man coverage. Kraft ranks third in target share against zone coverage, posting a solid 2.11 yards per route run.
This pick pairs nicely with the Jacobs one. Green Bay has a crowded pass-catching group, so it's already tough to earn significant volume in this offense. With the Packers trending even more run-heavy of late, the pass catchers are going to suffer.
David Montgomery More Than 15.5 Receiving Yards
David Montgomery … a pass-catching back?! The Knuckles to Jahmyr Gibbs' Sonic has actually shown some hands lately, recording three receptions in five of his last seven games. He's out-targeted Gibbs in that stretch.
All but one of Montgomery's targets this season has come against zone coverage. He's actually posted a double-digit target share when facing zone this season.
Well, Green Bay plays zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Montgomery has posted a ridiculous 3.27 yards per route run against zone this season. He has only run 83 routes against zone, which is a fairly small sample but still worth noting.
The Packers also rank in the bottom 10 in targets, receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs.
It's a good matchup. I don't mind Gibbs' receiving lines either, but I'd rather trust the recent volume with Montgomery.
