A high-stakes clash awaits as the Buffalo Bills (15-4) square off against the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. With Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes at the helm, both teams boast explosive offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Bills vs. Chiefs.
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Bills vs. Chiefs NFL PrizePicks Plays
Patrick Mahomes LESS Than 25.5 Rushing Yards
We have not seen Mahomes use his legs this season like in years past. He has gone under this total in 13 of 17 games this season, and his lowest total came against the Bills, who held him to zero yards in Week 11.
The Bills made a concerted effort to contain Lamar Jackson in the pocket last week, holding him to just 39 yards on six attempts. We should expect them to make the same effort again as Mahomes’ mobility can create plays down the field.
However, if they can keep Mahomes contained in the pocket again, he will be well under this total as the volume has not been there. This year, he has averaged just 3.8 rush attempts and 5.3 yards per attempt.
Samaje Perine MORE Than 8.5 Receiving Yards
Samaje Perine is an often overlooked part of the Chiefs offense. The third-down back brings low volume but high consistency, and he has an opportunity to make an even bigger impact in this matchup.
Perine averages just 1.6 receptions on two targets per game but also averages 12.9 yards per reception. Here, he’ll be up against a Bills defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs on a per-game basis this season.
We saw the Chiefs try to capitalize on this during their regular-season meeting. Perine saw his second-highest target total of the season with four, but he only secured two of them for eight yards.
However, it’s all there for Perine to go over this total this time around and add to his ledger, as he’s already done so in 14 of 18 games this year.
Josh Allen LESS Than 0.5 Interceptions
Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber campaign has been loaded with improvement through the air and on the ground, but what has really helped him take a big step forward is the minimization of turnovers.
Allen has thrown just six interceptions this season — by far the lowest total of his career — and we shouldn’t expect much regression in this matchup.
Without Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense evolved into a team that runs the ball well and excels in the short-to-intermediate passing game. The need to push the ball down the field and take chances is gone for Allen, and there won’t be one here with the Bills having the edge in the trenches.
Expect another clean game from Allen as he tries to punch his ticket to the Super Bowl.
