We were an injury away from going 3-for-3 on Thanksgiving. D'Andre Swift fell short of his rushing line and Jonnu Smith cruised over his receiving line. We needed 27 more receiving yards from CeeDee Lamb, but he missed the majority of the second half after aggravating a shoulder injury. He also had multiple brutal drops. Tough one.
This matchup might seem imposing, but I like Jameis Winston and his pass catchers to bounce back after a weak performance in Week 12. Here are my Browns vs. Broncos PrizePicks plays on Monday Night Football.
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NFL PrizePicks: Browns vs. Broncos
Jameis Winston More Than 234.5 Passing Yards
Winston finally had a down game in Week 12, at least in terms of volume. He only threw it 27 times against Pittsburgh. The snow flurries surely affected the play calling, as Cleveland posted an uncharacteristic 52.8% neutral pass rate. They were 2nd in the league at 64.6% heading into the game, and it had been 65.8% in Winston's three previous starts. He had topped 40 attempts in every start prior to Week 12.
Cornerback Riley Moss has been ruled out for this game. It's a huge loss for Denver's secondary. Moss and Patrick Surtain have been one of the most imposing cornerback duos in the league. Moss went down late in the 1st half against Las Vegas last week. In the 2nd half, the terrible tandem of Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder combined for 177 passing yards. Jakobi Meyers had the best game of the season for any wide receiver facing the Broncos, recording 10 catches for 121 yards. He had 7 catches for 81 yards in the 2nd half with Moss sidelined.
Winston will be missing Cedric Tillman, but he still has several capable receivers available. I'm confident the volume returns tonight, as Denver is seeing the 6th-most pass attempts per game. Cleveland coming in as a touchdown underdog suggests a positive game script.
Jerry Jeudy More Than 4.5 Receptions
I always like to add a pass catcher with a quarterback pick. Jeudy makes the most sense given his role and recent production. If you prefer David Njoku or Elijah Moore, I get it.
Jeudy has been the most productive receiver since the Amari Cooper trade. He leads the team in routes and receiving yards since Cooper was sent to Buffalo. The targets have been remarkably even between the pass catchers, with Jeudy, Tillman, Moore and Njoku all getting 39-42 looks. Everyone should get a boost with Tillman sidelined tonight.
I don't expect Surtain to shadow Jeudy. I also don't expect Jeudy to be stuck out wide. Moore has been the primary slot receiver since the Cooper trade, but he hasn't been the only option in that alignment. Jeudy and Njoku have both run more than 30% of their routes from the slot. Jeudy actually led the team in slot rate in Week 12, even with Tillman going down. He should keep moving around the field and be able to duck Surtain often enough to have a solid game. Jeudy has 5+ catches in every one of Winston's starts.
Javonte Williams Less Than 56.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
Sean Payton continues to playing running back roulette every week. Jaleel McLaughlin was the winner last week, leading the team with 44 rushing yards on seven carries. Williams stumbled to -2 yards on eight carries. He'll likely play more snaps than McLaughlin and Audric Estime, but he has a tenuous grip on this backfield. Fullback Michael Burton even chipped in a carry and a catch in Week 12.
Cleveland has plenty of issues on defense, though they've been good against running backs. The Browns are holding RBs to the ninth-fewest rushing yards and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game.
With Bo Nix playing well, Denver has leaned more into the passing game lately. They rank fifth in neutral pass rate over the past five weeks. Nix has 30+ attempts in all five of those games. The rushing pie is getting even smaller for Williams and company, which is a problem given the many mouths to feed.
