This year, the NFL is stepping into the NBA's turf with a two-game slate on Christmas Day.
We start with Chiefs–Steelers at 1:00 p.m. ET and then Ravens–Texans following at 4:30 p.m. ET.
I've built a PrizePicks slip with picks across both games, but they could also be split into two, two-game plays if that's your preference.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Christmas.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their slip at PrizePicks.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Christmas
Jaylen Warren MORE 10.0 Fantasy Points
I like the flexibility of the fantasy points lines on PrizePicks. I'm generally bullish on Jaylen Warren's outlook in games I expect the Steelers to be trailing.
That sometimes manifests itself in rushing production; sometimes it comes through the passing game.
With Pittsburgh as home underdogs against the Chiefs, we should see a negative game script for Pittsburgh here. Last week in a similar situation, Warren ended up with 12 rushes for 48 yards, chipping in an additional five catches for 49 yards.
The Chiefs have a tougher passing defense but an easier rushing defense than the Ravens by DVOA, so we could see slightly more efficiency on the ground. Either way, the combination of the two should get Warren to this line fairly easily, particularly if he can find the end zone.
If you wanted to get wild with this pick, Warren's touchdown prop has the "demon" stamp on PrizePicks, meaning juiced payout if you get it right.
I'm not looking there myself, but it's another option following the same line of thinking.
Patrick Mahomes LESS 24.5 Pass Completions
Our NFL Props tool is projecting value on most of the LESS lines for Mahomes in this game. Much of that is due to the likely game script, which should have the Chiefs firmly in control throughout.
I especially like that because it correlates with the Warren pick, since both benefit from a game where the Chiefs have the lead.
I toyed around with a few options here but ultimately decided on the completions line as the best value. If the Chiefs do get off to a big lead, Mahomes likely piles up a fair amount of yardage along the way.
However, that would limit how often he throws the ball later in the game, especially if they came through big plays early.
Additionally, this is the biggest edge in our projections, since we have a median of just 22.5 completions for Mahomes.
Joe Mixon LESS 65.5 Rushing Yards
Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game this season at just 83.1, with a combination of factors contributing to that.
First, teams typically want to throw the ball against the Ravens — they have the highest opponent pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL. Plus, with Baltimore often leading by a lot, that expectation is fairly low to begin with.
Since the start of November, Mixon has cleared this line just twice. Both of those games were blowout wins for the Texans, against bad rush defenses in the Jaguars and Cowboys.
They're unlikely to repeat that against the Ravens, who also feature a top-10 rushing defense. Mixon might be heavily involved in the passing game, but I don't expect much success on the ground.
Dalton Schultz MORE 3.5 Receptions
Last week, the Texans lost Tank Dell for the season, in addition to fellow starting wide receiver Stefon Diggs who was already done for the year.
That makes this an interesting spot against the Ravens, considering the typical approach teams tend to take against Baltimore.
While the backup wide receivers are interesting, I suspect a large chunk of the "leftover" receiving work will go to Schultz. Houston's tight end saw eight targets last week, turning them into five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown.
That was with less than half a game without Dell, against a tougher overall pass defense in Kansas City. This week, they're bigger underdogs and with even fewer other options, so Schultz should continue to see a heavy workload.
Like with Warren, it also makes sense to pivot to his touchdown prop if you want to shoot for a big payout.
