This game might decide the NFC East. Philadelphia has a 0.5-game lead right now, but their remaining schedule is tougher. The Eagles will head on the road to play the Rams and Ravens after this matchup. They have the Steelers in Week 14. The Commanders have just one game left against a team with a winning record (Atlanta in Week 17). These teams will match up again in Week 16, but the division could be decided by then.
It's a short week for both teams. Kind of. Philly was able to rest their starters for a large chunk of last week's matchup against the hapless Cowboys. Washington's defense was on the field for 75 plays on Sunday against the Steelers. I'll be leaning into this perceived rest disparity. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Commanders vs Eagles
Saquon Barkley More Than 18.5 Rush Attempts
Philadelphia has leaned on the ground game all season. They're the only team in the league that runs more than they pass. The Eagles are a close second in neutral run rate, just 0.2% behind the Dolphins.
Barkley is third in carries, behind only Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams. Henry hasn't had his bye week yet, so his mark is a bit inflated. Barkley and Williams have averaged more carries per game than Henry. Barkley has seen 75% of Philadelphia's running back carries.
Washington has seen the ninth-most carries per game. They've struggled on the ground, allowing the sixth-most yards per game and the fourth-highest yards per carry to running backs. I'm expecting Philly to lean on this tired defense with their rushing attack.
Brian Robinson Jr. Less Than 5.5 Receiving Yards
Robinson is expected to make his return tonight after missing two games with a knee injury. Austin Ekeler has played fairly well in his stead. Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez have also made contributions. Robinson has split snaps with Ekeler somewhat evenly throughout the season. There could now be more backs in the mix, and there's no guarantee Robinson gets a normal workload coming off the injury.
Robinson's role in the passing game has all but dried up since Week 1. He opened the season with three receptions on four targets. In the six games he's played since then, he has six catches on eight targets. Ekeler didn't play in Week 4, and Robinson secured three catches on three targets. That means in games with Ekeler after Week 1, Robinson has just three catches on five targets. He has a 2.8% target rate in those games.
Washington has targeted running backs at the fourth-lowest rate. Robinson has run just 11 routes in his last two healthy games, compared to 39 for Ekeler. On the rare occasion Jayden Daniels does throw to a running back, it'll likely be Ekeler.
Jalen Hurts More Than 0.5 Rushing+Receiving TDs
I don't expect Hurts to catch a touchdown, but I appreciate PrizePicks tacking it on there. Maybe Grant Calcaterra will hit him on a Philly Special.
This pick is mostly about the Tush Push. Mostly. Hurts has piled up eight rushing scores over his past four games, and five of them have been of the one-yard variety. Just like D'Andre Swift before him, Barkley has an amazing knack for getting tackled at the one-yard line. But we've also seen Hurts make more plays outside of the pocket. He's scrambled 10 times over the past three games, after recording 14 scrambles over his first six games. Hurts scored from 18 yards out in Week 9 and chipped in an eight-yard score last week.
There should be multiple paths for Hurts to find the end zone, whether with the Tush Push or from further out.
