The NFL's busy Holiday schedule continues this Thursday, with the Seahawks fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive as they travel to Chicago to take on the Bears.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Thursday Night Football
- DK Metcalf Less Than 61.5 Receiving Yards
- D'Andre Swift Less Than 15 Rush Attempts
- Caleb Williams More Than 215.5 Passing Yards
DK Metcalf Less Than 61.5 Receiving Yards
While it's been obvious for a while that Jaxon Smith-Njigba moved past Tyler Lockett as the No. 2 option in the Seahawks passing attack, it also seems like he's surpassed DK Metcalf as the No. 1 option.
In the last two games, Smith-Njigba has seen 24 targets, compared to just 10 for Metcalf. Those were both Seahawks losses, which likely increased their overall pass rate.
This week, they're favored against a Bears team that's seemingly phoned it in lately, and probably won't need to be overly aggressive in this one.
That makes the five or so targets per contest Metcalf has seen recently on the higher end of his range of outcomes here.
Our Projections Tool has Metcalf projected for 50.5 receiving yards, and he's cleared this number just once in the past five weeks.
D'Andre Swift Less Than 15 Rush Attempts
There's a lot working against D'Andre Swift in this one. The Bears game script will probably force them to lean on their passing attack here, as they're likely to be trailing Seattle.
Swift has also been banged up recently, and the Bears have Roschon Johnson back to spell him on occasion.
Given that it's a short week for the Bears, they probably don't want to force Swift to handle too heavy of a workload, so Johnson's return comes at the right time.
Beyond that though, Swift has handled more than 15 carries just once in the past six weeks.
Even under the best of circumstances, he doesn't typically clear this projection. So, chances are, he doesn't do it here with all of the other factors at play.
Caleb Williams More Than 215.5 Passing Yards
This is a surprisingly low projection for Caleb Williams, who threw for more than 300 yards last week against the Lions.
Over the past six games, the only teams to hold Williams under this mark were the Vikings and 49ers — both top-five pass defenses by DVOA.
Seattle ranks outside the top-10 in DVOA against the pass, and has faced a top-10 opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation on defense this year.
Plus, this obviously correlates well with the pick on Swift to have a low number of rush attempts. More throws for Williams helps his odds here, while simultaneously limiting opportunities for Swift.
