We went 2-for-3 on Monday. The lone loss was decisive and quick as DeAndre Hopkins not only went over four receptions, he doubled that number.
Tonight's matchup is a crucial AFC North showdown. Baltimore can take over the divisional lead with a win and a Pittsburgh loss this week. Despite an 0-3 start, Cincinnati can jump back into the postseason mix with a victory. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Bengals vs Ravens
Mike Gesicki
More Than 53.5 Receiving Yards
Gesicki's production is tied primarily to the health of Tee Higgins. Gesicki has been Cincinnati's most productive pass catcher when Higgins has been out. Gesicki has faded into a secondary role when Higgins has been healthy, but Higgins is listed as doubtful tonight.
In four games without Higgins, Gesicki has racked up 282 receiving yards on 22 catches and 27 targets. He's second on the team in target share at 19.1%. In five games with Higgins, Gesicki has just 71 receiving yards on eight catches and nine targets. He's also seventh in target share.
Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most targets, fifth-most receptions and the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Cincinnati leads the league in neutral pass rate, so the passing volume should be there.
Diontae Johnson
Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
John Harbaugh said ahead of Week 9 that Johnson would play about 10-15 snaps. The new addition played 17 snaps in his Baltimore debut and ran six routes, but failed to get a target.
Volume and competition are the main concerns for Johnson. In Week 9, eight pass catchers played at least 30% of the snaps. The Ravens have multiple tight ends in the mix, plus a slew of wide receivers earning playing time. Johnson was expected to challenge Rashod Bateman for playing time, but the incumbent actually led the team in snaps and routes last week.
Lamar Jackson only threw it 19 times in Week 9. It was the third time he attempted fewer than 20 passes this season. Baltimore has the fourth-lowest pass rate in the league. The Ravens are 25th in pass attempts. The Ravens are nearly a touchdown favorite tonight, which would suggest another run-heavy approach.
Chase Brown
Less Than 15.5 Fantasy Score
Brown broke out in Week 9 with a monster game. Backfield mate Zack Moss didn't play and Brown handled 100% of the running back opportunities. He rumbled for 120 yards on 27 carries, and added 37 yards on five catches. It was awesome, but it was against Las Vegas. The Raiders are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Baltimore is a much different matchup. The Ravens are holding running backs to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. The Ravens are giving up the second-fewest yards per game and the second-fewest yards per carry to the position.
As mentioned in the Gesicki section, Cincinnati leads the league in neutral pass rate. The Bengals dominated Las Vegas, leading to 31 attempts on the ground, but that shouldn't be the expectation. The Bengals also ran a massive 71 plays in Week 9, well above their season average of 58.9. This is a letdown spot for Brown.
