Is it possible to have a bad three-touchdown game? Josh Jacobs was stymied all night against Detroit last Thursday, but he found the end zone three times. He also had a receiving touchdown called back on a questionable pass interference call. We had a rough night with Jacobs falling short of his rushing + receiving number and Tucker Kraft sneaking over his receiving number.
This is a good spot to bounce back. It's a tremendous NFC West matchup with big playoff implications. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Rams vs. 49ers.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Rams vs 49ers
George Kittle More Than 4.5 Receptions
George Kittle is seeing a hefty target share and gets a nice boost without Christian McCaffrey. Kittle has posted a 14.5% target share with McCaffrey healthy this season. With McCaffrey sidelined, he's at 22.7%. Kittle led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards before McCaffrey's return from IR. He got right back to it in Week 14, hanging 151 receiving yards on the Bears. Kittle and Jauan Jennings lapped the rest of the 49ers in targets and receptions last week.
San Francisco had a 15.3% RB target share through Week 9, the sixth-lowest in the league. With McCaffrey healthy from Weeks 10-13, it spiked to 23.8%, the second-highest in the league over that stretch. Last week against Chicago, the 49ers had just three running back targets. Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor unsurprisingly didn't draw the same attention as McCaffrey in the passing game.
The Rams are an exploitable pass defense. They're mediocre against tight ends, but they've been generous to receivers aligned in line. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most receptions, the fourth-highest catch rate, and the sixth-most yards per route run to inline receivers. Kittle spends time in the slot and out wide, but he runs the majority of his routes from an inline alignment (53.5%).
Kyren Williams Less Than 10.5 Receiving Yards
Kyren Williams' efficiency in the passing game has dried up with just three receptions on three targets for 19 receiving yards over the past four games.
It seems to be largely tied to the pressure rate. When Matthew Stafford is under pressure, Williams has an 11.8% target share this season. When Stafford is kept clean, Williams' target share plummets to 6.1%. Unsurprisingly, the target shares for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp shoot up significantly when Stafford has time and can look for his stud wide receivers. When he's trying to avoid sacks, he's dumping it to Williams.
With the Rams' offensive line getting healthier, they have ceded just a 22.4% pressure rate over the past four weeks. Los Angeles has a league-leading 89.5% wide receiver target share and a league-low 3.5% running back target share in that stretch. The Rams are dead last in running back target share on the season.
San Francisco ranks just 25th in pressure rate this season, and it has slipped to 30th over the past three weeks with Nick Bosa sidelined. Bosa was estimated as a nonparticipant in practice on Monday and Tuesday.
If the 49ers can't get to Stafford, he'll likely push the ball downfield to Nacua and Kupp.
Brock Purdy More Than 20 Completions
This pick pairs nicely with Kittle. Brock Purdy is coming off a virtually flawless game against Chicago and seems recovered from the shoulder injury that limited him in recent weeks.
San Francisco's backfield is up in the air with Guerendo questionable. It'll be an uninspiring mix of Taylor, Israel Abanikanda and Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the backfield if Guerendo can't suit up. These fifth-string running backs were popular fantasy football waiver pickups this week, and any of them could conceivably lead the backfield on Thursday. I'm expecting the correct answer to be none of them. They're all going to flop with the 49ers leaning instead on the passing game.
The Rams are a bottom-10 passing defense. Since their Week 5 bye, all but two quarterbacks have posted 20+ completions. Purdy has hit 20 completions in three of his past four contests, with the only miss being the snow game against Buffalo.
