The NFL scheduling craziness continues with a three-game Saturday slate in Week 17. We start with Chargers vs. Patriots at 1:00 ET, followed by Broncos vs. Bengals at 4:30 p.m. and Cardinals vs. Rams at 8:15 p.m.
All three games have playoff implications for at least one of the teams, so it should be a good day of football.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Saturday.
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NFL Week 17 PrizePicks Plays for Saturday
Justin Herbert Less Than 12.5 Rushing Yards
There's a few reasons to like this pick. Herbert has rushed for more than 12 yards just once in the past four games and has also been dealing with an ankle injury during that time frame.
To be fair, the game with more than 12 rushing yards was last week, which signals that he's getting healthier. Still, that game came against a tough Broncos pass defense and pass rush.
This week, he's facing the Patriots, who rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and have a bottom-five adjusted sack rate. There won't be much need for Herbert to take off running.
Finally, with the Chargers favored, there's a reasonable chance they finish it in victory formation. That opens the door for some negative rushing plays from Herbert that'll push him back to fewer than 12.5 rushing yards.
Bo Nix More Than 234.5 Passing Yards
The Broncos take on the Bengals this week. Cincinnati ranks 26th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in DVOA against the pass.
With the Bengals favored, there will likely be a negative game script for the Broncos, who've been a top-five team in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) over the past four weeks.
That'll result in a relatively high expected passing rate for a team that throws the ball often. Additionally, those passes will come against a soft passing defense.
That all works our nicely for Nix, and our projections have him with a median of more than 240 passing yards in this game.
Chase Brown More Than 17.5 Rush Attempts
A game flow that compels the Broncos to take to the air likely means the Bengals are leading. That'll also mean more rushing attempts for Brown.
He's become a true workhorse for the Bengals, handling nearly 100% of the running back opportunities over the past seven weeks. He's had at least 18 carries in three of Cincinnati's four wins in that time frame, which makes for some nice correlation with the "more" on Nix's passing yards.
I prefer the rushing attempts pick over Brown's rushing yards as Denver's defense ranks third in the NFL with 3.9 rushing yards per attempt allowed.
Puka Nacua Less Than 8 Receptions
Puka Nacua Less Than 8 Receptions
During the Rams four-game winning streak, Nacua has had more than eight receptions just once and that came in the 44-42 shootout win over the Bills. The only other games this season in which he's caught eight or more passes have been losses.
Los Angeles' game against the Cardinals isn't shaping up to be anything like that as the Cardinals have mostly packed it in for the season and lost to the Panthers last week.
Assuming Los Angeles controls this game, it'll be happy to keep the ball on the ground and play slow. The Rams rank in the bottom-10 in PROE on the season, and 30th over the past four weeks.
This pick might be a little scary early as the Rams build a lead through the air. However, I expect them to take their foot off the gas once they get there, limiting the overall passing volume later in the contest.
