Thanksgiving might be the best NFL slate of the year. The league continues to add games on days like Black Friday and Christmas, but nothing beats the three-gamer on Turkey Day.
We open with a tense NFC North matchup, followed by a battle of backup quarterbacks, then a warm-weather team heading to chilly Lambeau Field.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Thanksgiving Day.
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NFL PrizePicks Plays for Thanksgiving
D'Andre Swift Less Than 48.5 Rushing Yards
I'm going back to this one after hitting it on Sunday. Swift has another tough matchup, and he's facing competition from Caleb Williams and Roschon Johnson on the ground.
Detroit has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. More notably, they present a challenging schematic matchup for Chicago. Since new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown took over, nearly 60% of Swift's carries have been zone runs, compared to 42% under Shane Waldron.
Swift has been much worse on zone runs, averaging 3.5 yards per carry with a 33.3% success rate. He's posted 4.4 YPC and a 48.4% success rate in man/gap concepts. Meanwhile, Detroit has held opponents to the lowest success rate on zone runs, sitting third in YPC.
One final note on Brown vs. Waldron. Chicago is 11th in neutral pass rate since Brown took over. They were 21st under Waldron. The Bears are also massive road 'dogs here, so they might be chucking it regardless.
CeeDee Lamb More Than 65.5 Receiving Yards
After a slow start to the season, Lamb is back to seeing massive volume. He has 10+ targets in 6 straight games. Lamb hasn't seen a dropoff with Cooper Rush under center, piling up 24 catches on 34 targets in the backup's 3 starts.
This is an excellent coverage matchup for Lamb. He has been much better facing single high this season, which the Giants have used at the fourth-highest rate in the league. He's posted a 28.1% target share, 0.31 targets per route run, and 2.58 yards per route run against single high.
With Rush under center, Lamb's target share is up to 33.3% vs. single high coverage. When facing two high safety looks, Lamb's numbers dip to a 22.1% target share, 0.25 targets per route run, and 1.7 yards per route run this season.
Even as home favorites, I'm expecting solid pass volume for the Cowboys. We can't expect the 55 attempts Rush had in Week 11, but something close to the 32 passes he threw in the Week 12 win seems reasonable. Lamb should be heavily involved in this spot.
Jonnu Smith More Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, Smith leads Miami in target share. Not Tyreek Hill. Not De'Von Achane. Not Jaylen Waddle. Jonnu. Smith. He's turned that workload into 27 catches for 299 yards and three touchdowns.
Miami has focused on short, quick passes to protect Tagovailoa. Smith has one of the lowest average depths of target on the team, so it tracks that he'd be a frequent option for Tua. With freezing temperatures expected for this matchup, we should see plenty of short passes.
Green Bay has a solid pass defense, but they've struggled at times to contain ball carriers. The Packers are allowing the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, but the 12th-most yards after the catch per game. Since Tagovailoa returned, 65% of Smith's 299 receiving yards have come after the catch.
