We've had some stinkers this year, but NFL Week 16 brings a tremendous AFC West matchup with big playoff implications. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Broncos vs. Chargers on Thursday Night Football.
Broncos vs. Chargers PrizePicks Plays for Thursday Night Football
Stone Smartt Less Than 37.5 Receiving Yards
Stone Smartt stepped in for Will Dissly as the Chargers' starting tight end last week. He caught five of six targets for 50 yards against the Bucs while playing about 70% of the offensive snaps.
However, that came in a game the Chargers lost 40-17. While Los Angeles has shifted to being more pass-heavy as the season has progressed, its overall pass rate in Week 15 is still likely an outlier.
This week, the Chargers are 2.5-point home favorites against the Broncos. That should lead to a much higher rushing rate and fewer passing opportunities. In addition, Denver ranks 24th in yardage allowed to tight ends, while Tampa ranks second.
Finally, Hayden Hurst was activated from the injured reserve this week and practiced in full on Tuesday. Assuming he's healthy, he should cut into Smartt's workload this week.
Gus Edwards More Than 34.5 Rushing Yards
Building off the theme of a close game or a positive game script for the Chargers, which would increase their rushing rate, let's add Gus Edwards' rushing yards to the mix.
Edwards hasn't been particularly explosive since taking over as the starter, but given the game environment, he could get enough volume, so that won't especially matter.
In the two close games he's been involved in as a starter, he has rushing totals of 32 and 36 yards. There's upside for a lot more if the Chargers can play from out in front, which they've yet to do since Edwards took over as a starter.
Ladd McConkey Less Than 21.5 Yards Longest Reception
On top of the game script working against the Chargers passing attack, we also have the Broncos tough passing defenses. Denver ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass and allows the third-fewest yards per pass attempt on the season.
McConkey is more of a possession receiver than a big-play threat, with a 10.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT) that ranks 57th among qualified wide receivers.
He's had a longest reception over this mark in just five of his 13 games played this season, with none of those occurring against top-ten passing defenses by DVOA.
Curiously, he's finished with a long reception of 20 or 21 yards three times, but all of those would count as a win here.
