We're still a week away from the glorious Thanksgiving slate, but PrizePicks has already blessed us with a discount.
Tyreek Hill's receiving yards number for Turkey Day has been trimmed all the way down to 0.5. Definitely make sure to take advantage of the discount. Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Week 12.
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NFL PrizePicks Plays for Week 12
D'Andre Swift Less Than 54.5 Rushing Yards
Caleb Williams was clearly the big winner in new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown's debut. The offense ran smoothly and Williams was given easier throws and simpler reads. D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze also received nice boosts from the competent playcalling of Brown.
The loser in this new-look offense seemed to be Swift. Carries were split fairly evenly between him and Roschon Johnson. Swift's 14 attempts were his fewest since Week 3. Johnson's 10 carries tied a season high. He had totaled 11 carries in his four previous games. Both backs benefited from Chicago running a silly 68 plays in Week 11.
Minnesota has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game. They've held running backs to the 3rd-fewest yards per carry. Notably, the Vikings are tied for the second-lowest explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards). Swift is generally inefficient on the ground, but he excels at breaking off big plays. He ran for 71 yards on 14 carries in Week 11, and more than half of those yards came on one play. If he can't bust a long run, he's in trouble.
Brian Robinson More Than 14 Fantasy Score
Robinson gets one of the best matchups in the league this week. Dallas is getting absolutely throttled on the ground right now. Joe Mixon bashed them for 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns on Monday night. They'll head to Washington on a short week to face an explosive offense.
The Cowboys have allowed 100+ rushing yards to opposing backfields in five consecutive weeks. They've allowed seven rushing scores in that span. Only Carolina is allowing more fantasy points per game to running backs.
Robinson missed a couple of weeks with an injury, then returned in Week 11 to handle 16 carries against Philadelphia. He's not overly efficient, but the volume is there when he's healthy. He's also been effective around the goal line, scoring seven rushing TDs in eight games. I'd also be fine taking his rushing yards or scoring a touchdown. Fantasy score just gives us more ways to get home.
Hunter Henry More Than 3.5 Receptions
Henry has been the most reliable option in the passing game for New England since Drake Maye took over. He leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards in Maye's six starts. Henry's only stinker in this stretch was Week 10, a dominant New England win that saw Maye attempt just 25 passes. He bounced back in Week 11 with six catches on nine targets.
No team has seen more tight end targets per game than Miami. It has allowed the seventh-most receptions per game to the position. The Dolphins have allowed 36 catches to tight ends over the past four weeks. Brock Bowers has a lot to do with that, but we've also seen solid usage games from guys like Dalton Kincaid and Davis Allen.
Henry faced this unit in Week 5 and struggled, posting two catches on four targets. A disastrous Jacoby Brissett performance was to blame. Henry should be much better in his second crack at this matchup.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their slip at PrizePicks.
