Week 16 wraps up at Lambeau Field, with the Green Bay Packers hosting the beat-up New Orleans Saints. The Packers still have plenty to play for, with playoff seeding and even a potential division win still up for grabs.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
Saints vs. Packers PrizePicks Plays for Monday Night Football
Christian Watson LESS 48.5 Receiving Yards
It's hard for any individual Packers wide receiver to post big receiving totals. Including tight end Tucker Kraft, they have five players with target shares between 12% and 16%.
That's all for the team that ranks 30th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league. On top of that, Green Bay is favored by two full touchdowns, so their expected pass rate is likely to be very low as well.
While Christian Watson has the explosive ability to clear this projection without much volume, his odds are much lower if we only project him for a few targets. That's a good starting point for our MNF PrizePicks plays.
Josh Jacobs MORE 19 Fantasy Points
We're projecting Jacobs slightly to the MORE side of a ton of his squares this week, with slight values on his rushing and receiving totals, as well as a better than 60% chance to score a touchdown.
Rather than try to pick the best of those projections, taking the fantasy points square gives us exposure to all of the above. Jacobs has topped 20 or more in PrizePicks scoring in five straight contests, most of which came against much tougher opposition than the Saints' 30th-ranked rush defense by DVOA.
Plus, everything that makes the Packers' passing attack project poorly helps the ground game. Green Bay should lean on the run here with a positive game script, giving Jacobs plenty of chances to rack up points.
Jordan Love LESS 29.5 Pass Attempts
I'm going against our projections slightly on this one, since we have Love projected almost exactly at this mark.
However, it correlates nicely with our other picks, so it's worth including on PrizePicks this time around.
Limited yardage from Watson and a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs both likely occur in games in which Love isn't asked to throw too many passes. With Green Bay likely to get out to an early lead, they won't be forced to be too aggressive.
Kendre Miller LESS 54.5 Rushing Yards
Besides a likely negative game script, Kendre Miller also has to deal with the Packers' top-10 rushing defense by DVOA on Monday night.
While he could theoretically overcome a lack of efficiency with volume, the Saints don’t seem to trust him enough to give him a full workload.
Even if they wanted to lean on the run, the scoreboard might not allow it — especially if the Packers are controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs.
That adds another bit of correlation to this pick, on top of being a solid option in it’s own right.
