Super Bowl Sunday has finally arrived, and on tap is a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, which was an instant classic between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
With so much firepower on each side, narrowing down your PrizePicks lineup is tough, but I have four picks to help you score big on the Big Game.
Let’s dive into my top NFL Super Bowl PrizePicks plays.
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Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl PrizePicks
Samaje Perine MORE Than 7.5 Receiving Yards
This is a pick I recommended ahead of the AFC Championship game, and while it took till the last few minutes for it to come in, Perine still cleared it by 10 yards.
Perine has a consistent role in this offense as a third-down back and is fifth on the team in targets. He only needs one reception to go over this mark, but he’s very efficient out of the backfield while averaging two targets per game. We could see him get even more work in this matchup, as the Chiefs could be trailing at some point.
If that is the case, Perine has a big opportunity as the Eagles rank 10th in receiving yards allowed to running backs, which is a drop-off from what their elite secondary does to wide receivers.
Perine has exceeded this total in 16 of 19 games this season — all signs point to him remaining consistent on Super Bowl Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes MORE Than 6 Rushing Attempts
When you think of the mobile quarterback in this matchup, it’s not Patrick Mahomes, but as we know, Mahomes can punish teams with his legs. Surprisingly, Mahomes holds the second-highest rushing grade from PFF among quarterbacks.
For Mahomes, it appears that the bigger the game, the more he’s willing to run. After averaging 4.2 rushing attempts per game during the regular season, he’s rushed 18 times over two playoff games.
This trend continues when you look at Mahomes' past Super Bowl appearances. He has averaged 7.3 rushing attempts in the Super Bowl, recording nine twice and six when he faced the Eagles.
Given his recent trends and history of doing whatever it takes to win big games, we should see Mahomes clear this mark, but we shouldn’t forget that kneel-downs help if the Chiefs secure their third-straight Super Bowl.
JuJu Smith-Schuster LESS Than 15.5 Receiving Yards
We discussed the Eagles' stout pass defense this season, but they are also the best at shutting down opposing wide receivers. The Eagles have PFF’s top-graded secondary, with all three starting corners ranking in the top 20.
This matchup means it will be difficult for the Chiefs’ top targets to get open and especially hard on JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose role has diminished to begin with. Smith-Schuster has averaged 1.3 receptions on 1.9 targets per game.
His average yards per reception is 11.7. So, if he has an average performance in the Super Bowl, he’s still very likely to be under this mark.
However, it’s clear he’s in for a below-average outing given the matchup, and he may not get many opportunities with Marquise Brown’s role growing in the offense.
Jalen Hurts MORE Than 0.5 Touchdowns
We can't let the Chiefs have all the fun because, odds are, they won't, and Jalen Hurts is a big reason why. Hurts has proven to be a threat on the ground and unstoppable around the goal line.
Hurts has scored in 12 of 18 games this season, making his implied odds to score -203. That is tremendous value at the price given by PrizePicks.
With Hurts getting a red-zone carry 36% of the time, we likely just need one successful “Tush Push.”
