I have 4 NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
We close the book on NFL Week 15 with 2 games, and I have plays for every team involved. We're on three playing to go above their listed totals and are going less than on the Raiders' recent sensation in the backfield.
Let's get straight to it.
NFL PrizePicks: Monday Night Football
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Bears vs. Vikings
D'Andre Swift More Than 12.5 Receiving Yards
D’Andre Swift has registered more than 12.5 receiving yards in three of the Bears’ last four games. The one time he did not was last week’s blowout loss to the 49ers when Chicago registered a pathetic 162 yards of offense.
The big reason for optimism here, and why it’s my favorite play of the night, is that Swift will be in full control of the Bears backfield. Roschon Johnson is out and while Travis Homer is a career third-down back, I doubt he will take on Johnson’s full workload on third downs and the passing game.
Swift ran a route on 70% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks last week and played 79% of snaps in a clear trailing game script. I expect a similar workload against Minnesota here, which should lead to this one being a winner.
Pick: D'Andre Swift More Than 12.5 Receiving Yards
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Sam Darnold More Than 13.5 Rushing Yards
Sam Darnold has registered more than 13.5 rushing yards in four of the Vikings’ seven home games this season. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per attempt at US Bank Stadium compared to 2.3 on the road, as well.
Darnold is averaging 4.3 rush attempts per game this season. If we get three scrambles here, I’d feel good about the Vikings quarterback getting more than 13.5
Also, the Bears rank in the top half of the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush grade. I see this game being reasonably competitive, which means Darnold will have to keep dropping back. If Chicago can get pressure on him, he won’t be afraid to get out of the pocket and scramble.
If PrizePicks offered 3.5 as rush attempts, I’d make that the play here since that would include kneel-downs at the end. Alas, I’ll settle for recommending this play on Darnold’s rushing yards.
Pick: Sam Darnold More Than 13.5 Rushing Yards
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Falcons vs. Raiders
Tyler Allgeier More Than 27.5 Rushing Yards
Unlike the Bears vs. Vikings matchup, I don’t think this game will be particularly close. I’m not high on Desmond Ridder, and Atlanta has remained efficient offensively during its four-game losing streak. I see this as the game the Falcons break out and return to scoring form.
A key part of the offense is Tyler Allgeier, who has frustrated fantasy owners since the start of last season with his constant involvement in the Falcons offense. This season, though, Allgeier is averaging five yards per carry and has been very efficient for Atlanta.
The Raiders have a bottom-10 run defense in the NFL, and I think Atlanta will be run-heavy in the second half as it plays with a lead. Allgeier has gotten seven carries in eight of 13 games this season, and I think that’ll be all he needs to get to 28 yards tonight. Heck, he’ll only need six based on his season-long average.
Pick: Tyler Allgeier More Than 27.5 Rushing Yards
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Sincere McCormick Less Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
Since taking over the Raiders backfield two weeks ago, McCormick has exceeded this total in each game. Both of those game scripts, though, allowed the Raiders to stay loyal to the rush game as they were one-possession games going into the fourth quarter.
Here, I don’t think that will be the case. The Falcons offense is poised to blow up, and the Raiders offense is poised to plummet even further.
McCormick is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season, which is unsustainable in this offense. The Raiders rank 31st in Rush DVOA, so I see that average going down abruptly very soon.
Pick: Sincere McCormick Less Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
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