NFL PrizePicks Props: Bets for Kenny Pickett & Mecole Hardman in Week 6

Welcome to Week 6. It’s amazing to think we’re cruising toward the halfway point of the NFL season.

This is where the good teams will turn it on, the bad teams will start to tank, and the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. We are going to learn a lot about the landscape of the NFL over the next month.

But I’m focusing on this specific week, and I’m focusing on exploiting the value we can find in the PrizePicks NFL player prop market.

PrizePicks allows you to pair up and parlay these props for real money in 30 states – that includes some states where online sports betting is not yet available.

I’m targeting two unders for Week 6.

Kenny Pickett
Under 22 Completions

This is an overreaction line.

Pickett had a monster performance against Buffalo… in garbage time. The Bills were up 38-3 at the half and Mike Tomlin said let it fly. Pickett dropped back 37 times in the second half, as opposed to 23 times in the first half.

The Steelers were down 30 and had to go to the air to try and salvage something from the game. Pickett completed 34 passes for 327 yards, and his below numbers are very impressive:

But it all means very little.

Pickett will come back down to earth against Tampa Bay. There’s a narrative out there that you cannot run the football on the Buccaneers. But that narrative may have flipped this season.

The Buccaneers are first in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and second in Dropback Success Rate allowed. Tampa is allowing less than five net yards per attempt and have forced six interceptions while allowing just seven touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers' rush defense has been a little shaky. They are 14th in Rush Defense DVOA and 27th in Rush Success Rate allowed.

This is your typical Rah Rah spot for Tomlin, who is the best underdog coach of all time. The game plan is always the same: Tomlin will grind this game to a halt by running the ball and playing great defense. Given Tampa’s defensive composition, Pittsburgh is going to have success.

Once Pittsburgh has success running the ball, Tomlin will keep calling rush and it will lead to few attempts for Pickett.

The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Pickett for 20.7 completions on Sunday. Given the context, I’ll take the under.

Mecole Hardman
Under 30.5 Receiving Yards

This is also an overreaction line.

Mecole Hardman picked up a whopping 73 receiving yards last week, nabbing a few big gains on just four receptions. Patrick Mahomes will always find you if you’re open.

However, I don’t think Hardman should be counted on week-to-week. Rookie receiver Skyy Moore is breaking into Hardman’s playing time, as his route rate has dropped below 50% over the last few weeks.

In fact, Hardman was on the field for a season-low 40% of snaps last Sunday against Las Vegas. We could potentially expect this trend to continue.

I am more than fine with fading Hardman against an elite secondary like Buffalo’s. The Bills are allowing just 5.7 receptions per game to “Other” receivers, or receivers not rated as No. 1 or No. 2 on the field.

Hardman is not a top option in this offense and his opportunities are getting slimmer. Plus, we get the added bonus of this line being high due to last week’s big game.

The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Hardman for less than 25 receiving yards on Sunday. There’s value in fading Hardman today.