We get another intriguing divisional battle for Thursday Night Football this week. Philadelphia dispatched Washington in Week 11 to take a commanding lead in the NFC East. Their Pennsylvania cohorts have the opportunity to do the same in Week 12. Pittsburgh knocked off Baltimore on Sunday to extend its division lead to 1.5 games. A win this week would put a ton of pressure on the Ravens, who travel to L.A. to take on a red-hot Chargers squad.
We just missed a perfect card last week. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts both came through, but Brian Robinson took a checkdown pass for nine yards to go over his receiving number on his only target in the game. Let's secure the 3-for-3 this Thursday.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Steelers vs. Browns.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Steelers vs Browns
Jameis Winston More Than 34.5 Pass Attempts
Weather is going to be a factor for this game. The forecast currently shows steady precipitation and temperatures near freezing. The key for me is the wind, which shouldn't be a major issue. Wind typically affects passing games more than rain or snow.
Meteorologist Kevin Roth of RotoGrinders didn't sound overly concerned about the conditions in his weather report: "The temperature will be in the 30s, and as a general rule, I think if we see mostly rain (instead of snow), it would be more impactful. Either way, the winds do look to stay fairly manageable, sustained around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Models show winds picking up late, likely after the game."
Roth noted that the conditions could lead to a "slightly more running-game oriented" approach, but that's it. Cleveland is second in the league in neutral pass rate at 64.6%. In Winston's three starts, it's held steady at 65.8%. He's chucked it 41+ times in every game.
Pittsburgh has seen the 10th-most pass attempts per game. The only quarterbacks to fall short of 30 attempts against the Steelers were a hobbled Kirk Cousins in Week 1 and the Justin Herbert/Taylor Heinicke combo in Week 3.
George Pickens More Than 57.5 Receiving Yards
Pickens has torched man coverage this season. He's eighth in yards per route run and sixth in targets per route run (minimum 50 routes). Pickens ranks seventh in receiving yards and tied for 10th in receptions against man coverage.
Regardless of coverage, Pickens has been Russell Wilson's favorite target by a mile. He has 22 catches on 33 targets since Wilson took over. Both marks are more than twice as many as the next-closest Steeler.
Cleveland plays man at the fourth-highest rate. They've allowed the sixth-most yards per route run and the 10th-most yards per target. The Browns do not see a ton of passing volume and they're underdogs in this game. Wilson might only reach the high-20s in attempts, but that should still mean 6-8 targets for Pickens.
Nick Chubb Less Than 52.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb would need his best game of the season to exceed this number. It's a tough matchup and I'm concerned about his playing time given the setup.
Chubb has posted snap shares between 30-36% in three of his four games this season. His playing time perfectly aligns with Cleveland's competitiveness. The Browns beat Baltimore in Week 8, leading to a season-high 61% snap share for Chubb. Cleveland lost the other three games, and the pass-catching backs (Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong) played more than Chubb.
Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. They've held running backs to the seventh-fewest yards per carry. Chubb will need volume to get there against this defense, and that would require Cleveland to play with a lead. That seems unlikely given their recent performance.
