Texans vs. Jets was supposed to be a matchup between two high-powered offenses, but it certainly hasn't shaken out that way.
New York has disappointed all season, culminating in a disgusting loss at New England in Week 8. Houston has been crushed by injuries to skill position players, with Nico Collins and Joe Mixon missing time and Stefon Diggs now out for the season.
The Thursday Night Football spread has been all over the place. The Jets opened as 3-point favorites, then flipped to slight underdogs. New York is back in the favorite role, and it's as high as 2.5 points in some spots. Either way, it should be a tight game, which will definitely play into my NFL PrizePicks plays for Texans vs Jets.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Texans vs Jets
Joe Mixon
More Than 20.5 Rushing Attempts
The role for Mixon has been tremendous. He has the third-highest rushing attempt share in the league (only Kyren Williams and Jonathan Taylor have seen a larger chunk of their team's carries.) Mixon has 102 carries in five games, which was really more like 4.5 games. He hurt his ankle in Week 2 and was in and out of the lineup. He ultimately missed a month with the injury.
Houston has been more run-heavy since losing top receiver Nico Collins in Week 5. They went from 27th in neutral run rate through Week 5 to fifth over the past three weeks. Mixon has 25 carries in each of the last two games.
Teams have been eager to run against this Jets defense. New York has ceded the sixth-highest opponent rushing rate. They're allowing the seventh-most carries per game to running backs. Given the tight spread, it should be another run-heavy spot for the Texans, especially now that they're also missing Diggs.
Garrett Wilson
More Than 22.5 Longest Reception
The addition of Davante Adams was expected to cut into Wilson's role, but it hasn't really over two weeks. Wilson still boasts a strong 25.4% target share since Adams arrived. He's earned five more targets than the veteran through two games.
The main change has been aDOT. Wilson's average depth of target has jumped from 8.2 to 15.4 with Adams in the mix. He has a hefty 262 air yards the past two games, which is 55.4% of the team share.
Houston has allowed the highest aDOT this season, and it's not close. The Texans' 10.9 aDOT allowed is a yard higher than the next-closest team. They've allowed a league-leading 43 targets thrown 20+ yards down the field. Teams have routinely challenged Houston down the field, and that's exactly where Wilson has operated since Adams came aboard.
Mike Williams
Less Than 20.5 Receiving Yards
Williams has been the odd man out since the Adams addition. He's run just 42% of the routes in Weeks 7-8. After playing a limited snap count in Week 1, Williams had run 59.4% of the routes from Weeks 2-6.
Williams was completely shut out in Week 8, earning zero targets on 18 routes. He had just two targets in Adams' first game, turning them into one catch for 15 yards. Williams is seventh on the team in target share over the past two weeks, right behind backup tight end Jeremy Ruckert.
Williams didn't have a huge role prior to the Adams trade, but the opportunities he was getting have all but evaporated.
