The number in parentheses after each pick is my confidence rating out of 10.
NFL PrizePicks & Underdog Plays
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Steelers vs. Falcons
Gordon Igwebuike (7)
More Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
The Falcons may rest Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. If they do play, they’d only get a few snaps each. Therefore, Atlanta might only have two RBs the rest of the way in Godwin Igwebuike and Carlos Washington.
I like Igwebuike’s rushing line on PrizePicks and Washington’s total yards on Underdog because the Falcons have been using Godwin more on early downs and Washington on passing downs. These two picks have negative correlation, but both should see enough playing time for both to hit and splitting them up by site makes a ton of sense.
I’m projecting Igwebuike for closer to 43.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Gordon Igwebuike More Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
Steelers vs. Falcons
Mack Hollins (8)
Less Than 18.5 Receiving Yards
It’s unclear if the Falcons will play their starters, but it should be for a brief spell if they do.
Hollins has already established himself as a starter and his median should be much lower in limited playing time. The only reason this isn’t a 10/10 is the Falcons' playing time has been pretty unpredictable and he’s capable of clearing this on a single catch, but this feels way too high.
I’m projecting Hollins for closer to 8.5. ( There’s a decent chance he doesn’t play and it gets graded as a DNP.)
Pick: Mack Hollins Less Than 18.5 Receiving Yards
Colts vs. Eagles
Trey Sermon (7)
More Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
Sermon is dealing with an ankle injury, but I’m guessing he sees 7-10 rush attempts if he suits up since the Eagles RB room could be fairly thin tonight. Also, this is his last chance to make his case to make the final 53.
I’m projecting Sermon for closer to 32.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Trey Sermon More Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
Colts vs. Eagles
Devon Allen (8)
More Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
Allen has hauled in two catches for 21 yards on three targets on just 20 routes run this preseason. However, he should see a ton of playing time here and, ideally, most of his playing time comes when rookie Tanner McKee is under center.
I’m projecting Allen for closer to 27.5 receiving yards, and I love his upside tonight.
Pick: Devon Allen More Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
Steelers vs. Falcons
Taylor Heinicke (9)
Less Than 135.5 Passing Yards
I’m projecting Heinicke to play only one half or less, regardless of whether Desmond Ridder sees any playing time tonight. The Falcons have been pretty unpredictable with playing time, which prevents this from being a 10/10 play.
I’m projecting Heinicke for closer to 112.5.
Pick: Taylor Heinicke Less Than 135.5 Passing Yards
Steelers vs. Falcons
Carlos Washington (8)
More Than 37.5 Rushing +Receiving Yards
The Falcons may rest Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. If they do play, they’d only get a few snaps each. Therefore, Atlanta might only have two RBs the rest of the way in Godwin Igwebuike and Carlos Washington.
I like Igwebuike’s rushing line on PrizePicks and Washington’s total yards on Underdog because the Falcons have been using Godwin more on early downs and Washington on passing downs. These two picks have negative correlation, but both should see enough playing time for both to hit and splitting them up by site makes a ton of sense.
I’m projecting Washington for closer to 45.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Pick: Carlos Washington More Than 37.5 Rushing +Receiving Yards
Steelers vs. Falcons
Desmond Ridder (9)
Less Than 65.5 Passing Yards
It’s unclear if Ridder will suit up in this game, but it should be a brief stint if he does. I think there’s a decent chance he ends up being a DNP if he doesn’t play.
If he does start, this will only make the Heinicke under that much more likely to hit. I like the correlation of having both of the Falcons’ QBs in the first half in the same pick pack since Logan Woodside may play the entire second half. That limits the floor/ceiling combo of Ridder and Heinicke.
Pick: Desmond Ridder Less Than 65.5 Passing Yards
Colts vs. Eagles
Anthony Richardson (7)
Less Than 92.5 Total Yards
Richardson is expected to start and could play 1-1 1/2 quarters here. In theory, this line would be about right if Richardson leaned on his rushing ability, but he doesn’t have a scramble on 12 drop backs so far, which means the Colts likely want him to stay in the pocket for the preseason. Plus, the Eagles have great depth, so even the second unit on defense is comparable to other teams’ starting unit.
This could be a tough matchup for Richardson, so I’m projecting him for closer to 83.5 against Philadelphia.
