We're not quite halfway done with the NFL Regular Season, but that doesn't mean we can't take an eye towards the postseason.
Here at the Predictive Analytics team, we updated our NFL Power Ratings every week, projecting the number of victories that a team is projected to have at the end of the season. Using that win total, we'll see what the playoff picture would look like.
For reference, here is what the NFL playoff picture currently looks like. Remember, only one team per conference gets a bye into the Divisional Round, and there are three Wild Card spots available.
Current NFL Playoff Picture
As it currently stands, the Bills and the Eagles control home field advantage with one-game edges over the second-place teams. The Chiefs and the Vikings follow suit, respectively, and behind them is a slew of squads.
AFC:
- Buffalo Bills (5-1)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)
- Tennessee Titans (3-2)
- Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
- New York Jets (4-2)
- Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)
NFC:
- Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
- San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
- New York Giants (5-1)
- Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
- Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Projected NFL Playoff Picture
Our projections don't deviate too far from the current playoff picture. The only division winner that changes is in the AFC South, where the Colts replace the Titans.
Projected number of wins in parentheses
- Buffalo Bills (13.99)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11.77)
- Baltimore Ravens (10.27)
- Indianapolis Colts (9.03)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10.32)
- Cincinnati Bengals (9.50)
- Miami Dolphins (9.43)
NFC:
- Philadelphia Eagles (13.71)
- Minnesota Vikings (10.76)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.05)
- San Francisco 49ers (9.70)
- Dallas Cowboys (10.95)
- New York Giants (9.96)
- Green Bay Packers (9.76)
According to our Power Ratings, the Rams are the first team to miss out, with a projected win total of 8.81. In the AFC, it's the Titans who narrowly miss out with an 8.42 total.
Full win total projections can be found below.
Updated AFC Win Projections
| AFC Team | Projected Win Total |
|---|---|
| Bills | 13.99 |
| Chiefs | 11.77 |
| Chargers | 10.32 |
| Ravens | 10.27 |
| Bengals | 9.50 |
| Dolphins | 9.43 |
| Colts | 9.03 |
| Titans | 8.42 |
| Patriots | 8.13 |
| Jets | 8.08 |
| Raiders | 7.78 |
| Broncos | 7.29 |
| Browns | 7.14 |
| Jaguars | 6.95 |
| Steelers | 5.84 |
| Texans | 5.00 |
Updated NFC Win Projections
| NFC Team | Projected Win Total |
|---|---|
| Eagles | 13.71 |
| Cowboys | 10.95 |
| Vikings | 10.76 |
| Buccaneers | 10.05 |
| Giants | 9.96 |
| Packers | 9.76 |
| 49ers | 9.70 |
| Rams | 8.80 |
| Falcons | 7.71 |
| Saints | 6.99 |
| Seahawks | 6.59 |
| Cardinals | 6.57 |
| Commanders | 6.01 |
| Lions | 5.59 |
| Bears | 5.42 |
| Panthers | 4.50 |
