Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 45-27 (62.5%) so far and has a 249-175-5 (58.7%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Find his pick for the Monday Night Football showdown between the Chargers and Saints below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.
NFL Prop Bet: Chargers vs. Saints
- The Pick: Joshua Kelley Under 49.5 Rush Yards (-112)
- Bet Now: DraftKings
Joshua Kelley is set to become the Chargers' lead back with Austin Ekeler out indefinitely, but his rushing yard market is overinflated for Monday night's game considering the many different paths he has to this under.
RT Bryan Bulaga and RG Trai Turner are out, meaning the Chargers will be without three starters on their offensive line. Kelley is the type of between-the-tackles runner who needs his line to open up running lanes in order for him to thrive, and tonight he'll be going up against a Saints defense that ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run, which will be another tough test after getting bottled up for seven yards on nine attempts by the Bucs' second-ranked run D last week.
The Chargers started to use him in the passing game more last week — he had a season-high 45% routes run per drop back — and I can see them similarly using him tonight, which would help limit his rushing attempts.
The Chargers are also 7-point road dogs (check real-time odds here), which means they could be playing behind for much of the game, and a negative game script will make it even tougher for Kelley to see enough rush attempts to go over 49.5 yards.
Another key factor going against Kelley is that he's a lost fumble in back-to-back games. Backup Justin Jackson has yet to lose a fumble in 120 career touches ,so Jackson could have a much larger role than we anticipate tonight, which would significantly benefit the Kelley's under.
Kelley has a wide range of outcomes tonight: The Chargers could pull off the upset, have a game script that allows them to give Kelley 20 or more carries, and he clears this number with ease. But it's much more likely that one or more of the factors above occur tonight and prevent that from happening.
I have Kelley projected for 13.0 carries and a median of 44.5 rushing yards, but every yard counts in this market, so make sure you get the best possible number.
I would bet it down to 46.5, but here are my projected chances of him going over or under various lines:
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