Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he had a 60-35 (63.2%) record heading into Sunday's slate and a 264-183-5 (59.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Find his pick for Sunday Night Football below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.
NFL Prop Bets For Cowboys vs. Eagles
- The Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Under 67.5 Rush Yards (-125)
- Bet Now:DraftKings
I will be fading Elliott's rushing production on Sunday night.
The Cowboys are 10.5-point underdogs as seventh-round rookie Ben DiNucci will be starting in place of the injured Andy Dalton (find real-time NFL odds here). The Eagles should stack the box as they won't need to worry about DiNucci beating them, which could make for tough sledding for Zeke as the Eagles have surrendered the third-fewest adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders).
Once the Eagles get out to a sizable lead, which I think they will, it'll force the Cowboys into more of a pass-heavy game script. I can see them using dump-offs to Zeke as an extension of the run game at that point.
The last factor in favor of the under here is that the Cowboys have been using Tony Pollard a bit more. He has seen eight and 10 carries over their last two games. You have to wonder if the Cowboys consider 2020 a lost season and will begin limiting Elliott's workload because they're looking ahead to 2021 when they get Dak Prescott back.
The market is a bit inflated for Zeke because he is still one of the game's best running backs. However, he typically benefits from the offense when it's playing at a high level and variables outside of his control will hold him back for all the reasons I mentioned above.
I would bet this down to 61.5, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various lines for you to compare to your sportsbook:
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