DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 10 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done with these resources at FantasyLabs.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 264-140-4 (+67.9) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Bills QB Josh Allen Passing Yards
- Over 209.5: -112
- Under 209.5: -112
Since returning from the Week 6 bye, the Bills have shifted more toward the running game, which has resulted in a decrease in passing attempts for Allen.
In Weeks 1-5, he averaged 32.6 attempts per game. In Weeks 7-9, that number dropped to 26.7. In those games, Allen has had 202, 169 and 160 yards passing.
In his 19 NFL starts, Allen has averaged 192.3 yards passing. This year, 206.6.
The Browns aren't great against the pass, but they're not horrible: They're No. 18 in pass defense (per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric). And they have back cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, both of whom missed a month of action before their recent return.
As three-point underdogs, the Bills could have more of a pass-heavy game script than they've had recently, but in a contest with a slate-low 40-point total, I expect the Bills will continue to lean on the run in order to keep the game close and control the ball.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Allen projected for 190 passing yards.
Pick: Under 209.5 (-112) [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
- Over 2.5: -200
- Under 2.5: +160
No one likes a lot of juice, but sometimes that's where the value is, and that's the case here.
For the year, Zeke has three receptions on 3.8 targets per game, but I think those numbers aren't truly representative of his pass-catching potential.
In Weeks 1-2, he had a reduced workload due to his offseason holdout. In Weeks 3 and 7-9, the Cowboys won by 14-plus points, and Zeke wasn't needed as a receiver.
But in Weeks 4-6, the Cowboys played three relatively close games, and Zeke had 4.3 receptions on 5.3 targets.
And last year in 15 regular-season games, Zeke averaged 5.1 receptions on 6.3 targets and had fewer than three receptions just twice.
The Cowboys are favored by just three points, so I expect a close game. Since last year, Zeke has averaged 5.1 receptions on 6.2 targets in the 15 games that have fallen within a final scoring margin of +/- 10 points (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
The Vikings are a nondescript No. 15 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
As long as this game stays relatively close, Zeke has a great shot to get three-plus receptions.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Zeke projected for 3.7 receptions.
Pick: Over 2.6 (-200) [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 10, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.
