DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 11 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done with these resources at FantasyLabs.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 257-152-4 (+65.2) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Ravens RB Mark Ingram Receiving Yards
- Over 11.5: -112
- Under 11.5: -112
Ingram is a pretty decent receiving back. In his final five years with the Saints, Ingram averaged 3.5 targets, 2.9 receptions and 20.4 yards receiving across 73 games (including playoffs).
This year, though, Ingram has 1.7 targets, 1.6 receptions and 13.9 yards per game. His target volume has been cut in half. That's significant.
He has been notably more efficient this season with 8.3 yards per target. But at some point this year, he's likely to regress toward his long-term mark.
In other words, his lack of opportunity matters more than his inflated efficiency.
I realize that the Texans have allowed a league-high 63.7 receiving yards to opposing backs, so the over might seem enticing, but I think that high number is more a function of the backs they've played against than anything else.
The Texans have faced a lot of backs who either are above-average receivers or get above-average pass-catching usage: Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette (twice), Jalen Richard, Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith.
Given the backs they've had to handle, it's no surprise that they've allowed a lot of receiving yards. For what it's worth, they did hold the Ingram-esque Latavius Murray (three targets) and LeSean McCoy (two targets) to fewer than 11.5 yards.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Ingram projected for 8.4 receiving yards.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-112) [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Bills WR John Brown Receptions
- Over 3.5: -157
- Under 3.5: +125
The Abolitionist is “high flooring” his way to a career year, and I'm loving it.
This season he has personal-best marks with a 66.2% catch rate and 7.9 targets and 5.2 receptions per game. In fact, JoBro has had more than 3.5 receptions in every game this year.
As I highlight in the Week 11 WR/CB piece, his matchup is incredible. The Dolphins are No. 30 against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and that number is probably giving them too much credit.
The Dolphins are without perimeter corners Xavien Howard (knee, IR) and Ken Webster (ankle), and they have moved Jomal Wiltz from the slot to safety, so now they are starting undrafted backups Nik Needham, Ryan Lewis and Chris Lammons at corner.
When Axl Rose sings "Paradise City," he's thinking about the Dolphins cornerbacks.
In Week 7 against the Dolphins, Brown had five receptions on six targets.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Brown projected for 4.5 receptions.
Pick: Over 3.5 (-157) [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 11, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.
