DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 16 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 300-187-10 (+67.4) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: +100
- Under 1.5: -124
The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense (per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric), and they have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks with 2.36 per game.
It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is. Here’s how it has changed from Week 1 to now.
- Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Linden Stephens
- Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
- Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Jomal Wiltz
- Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
- Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert
At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third- and fourth-stringers. At safety, they’re using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.
The Dolphins have allowed over 1.5 touchdowns passing to quarterbacks in 12 of 14 games. The two starting quarterbacks not to pass for two-plus touchdowns against the Dolphins?
- Sam Darnold, in a #RevengeGame for the Dolphins against former head coach Adam Gase.
- Brian Hoyer, filling in for the injured Jacoby Brissett.
Dalton isn't a great quarterback, but almost everyone scores multiple times against the Dolphins, and wide receivers Tyler Boyd and John Ross should be able to beat the corners covering them.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Dalton projected for 1.7 passing touchdowns.
Pick: Over 1.5 (+100)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Steelers RB James Conner Rushing Yards
- Over 37.5: -112
- Under 37.5: -112
Give me the over, and give it to me now.
The Jets are No. 2 in rush defense DVOA, but just last week, they allowed Mark Ingram to rack up 76 yards on the ground.
The week before that, they gave up 48 yards rushing to Patrick Laird.
PATRICK. LAIRD.
Let's not pretend that the Jets are a total stonewall against the run. They're not. In nine games this season, Conner has gone over 37.5 yards in six games, and in the three under games, I believe there were mitigating circumstances.
- Week 1: Steelers played the Patriots, lost 33-3 and had negative game script.
- Week 2: Steelers lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
- Week 8: Conner played just 13 snaps before leaving with an injury.
In his return from injury last week, Conner had just eight carries, but he rushed for 42 yards, and he didn't suffer any sort of setback.
With Conner healthy, I expect the Steelers to amplify his workload in Week 16.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Conner projected for 57.4 rushing yards.
Pick: Over 37.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Freedman is 522-393-22 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.
