Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 77-57 (57.5%) so far and has a 287-213-5 (57.4%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his prop bets for Sunday's main Week 11 slate below.
NFL Prop Picks & Bets
Browns QB Baker Mayfield Under 9.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Rushing props for a pocket passer like Baker can always be deceiving.
Mayfield has gone under this number in seven of nine games. Sure, he will have games like Week 8, where he ran for 29 yards, but he won't clear double digits most of the time.
Browns TE Austin Hooper Over 2.5 Receptions (-129)
Hooper only went 1/11/0 in his return but ran a route on 82% of dropbacks. A lot of that was due to the high winds last week, but we should expect much higher production going forward with that amount of playing time.
I would set this as a coin flip at 3.5. Getting over 2.5 here would be worth about -200 juice, and I would bet this up to -160.
Eagles WR Greg Ward Under 33.5 Rec Yards (-130)
With Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery returning to the lineup, it would force one of the Eagles' WRs to take a back seat. That WR appears to be Ward, who saw his routes run per dropback fall from the 85-90% range to 56% last week. It will only go down as Jeffery increases his playing time over the coming weeks.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson Under 5.5 Rec (-130) & Under 63.5 Rec Yards (-106)
I'm doubling down on Diontae's reception and yard unders here.
The Jaguars are unlikely to score enough points for the Steelers to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters. Look for Pittsburgh to get their running game on track this week, and I think it's unlikely we see JuJu Smith-Schuster, Johnson and Chase Claypool all exceed expectations in limited volume. Diontae's props seem a bit inflated here.
Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert Under 27.5 Rec Yards (-106)
Yes, James O'Shaughnessy is out this week. No, I do not think that will lead to Eifert putting up 28+ yards.
Eifert ran a route on 74% of dropbacks last week, which is probably his ceiling at this point in his career, and only put up 2/15/0 against the Packers. He's not going to fare any better against the Steelers. Expect Ben Ellefson and Tyler Davis to chip in for O'Shaughnessy and Eifert to have pretty much the same role here.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Under 288.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The Colts' defense has been elite against both the pass (fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA) and the run (fourth). It will be a tough test for Rodgers and the Packers.
I'm also expecting Indy's running game to get going against Green Bay's run-funnel defense and keep Rodgers on the sideline. This line is pretty inflated, and I would bet it down to 283.5.
Packers RB Jamaal Williams Over 13.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Tyler Ervin is out this week, which only raises Jamaal's floor in terms of receiving yards. He should see 40-50% routes run per dropback, which is more than enough usage for him to post 2+ catches and clear this number.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow under 282.5 Pass Yards (+105)
The Washington pass defense has been solid this season (fifth in DVOA against the pass), and I'm projecting the Bengals -1 here. I think this line is way too high and should be closer to 270.5.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions (+106)
As I pointed out in the Burrow prop, I don't expect the Bengals to fall behind and get into a pass-heavy game script we have seen at times this year. To be clear, I still love Higgins as a high-end WR2 in fantasy due to his yardage and TD potential, 5.5 receptions feels a bit steep.
Washington WR Steven Sims Over 25.5 Rec Yards (-110) & Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
I expect Sims' playing time to increase as we advance, and he's the type of receiver Alex Smith loves to target. I would bet this up to 28.5, but if Dontrelle Inman or Isaiah Wright is ruled out, I would bet it up to 32.5. If both are ruled out? It would be my play of the day.
Editor's Note: Inman was ruled out of Sunday's game with a hamstring injury.
Chargers WR Jalen Guyton Under 34.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Guyton is a player with a wide range of outcomes. This number is way too high most weeks, but especially in a matchup where the Chargers are favored by 9.5 points. I don't see them needing to take many deep shots for him to see enough targets to get here.
Jets TE Chris Herndon Under 15.5 Rec Yards (-106)
I love the fact that a book is willing to take action against Herndon right now. His playing time has hit rock bottom with a 38% routes run per dropback last week. It's just not going to happen for Herndon this season, but hopefully he will play up to his potential in the post-Adam Gase era.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder Over 54.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Crowder was eased into the lineup in his Week 10 return, running a route on 73% of dropbacks. Expect that to go up this week and for Joe Flacco to target him often.
Saints WR Michael Thomas Under 68.5 Rec Yards (-141)
This number would make sense if Drew Brees were healthy. However, with Tayson Hill likely to play QB for most of the game, it is way too high.
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker Over 51.5 Rec Yards (-110)
It's a great time to buy low on Parker here. He's been getting the underlying usage to clear this number but has yet to click with Tua under center.
The Dolphins lost both Preston Williams and Isaiah Ford, which will only boost Parker's floor. This might be the last time we get Parker in the low 50s.
Patriots RB Rex Burkhead Over 9.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Burkhead has been splitting time with James White as the pass-catching back. Last week he ran a route on 47% of dropbacks compared to White's 26%. It's an easy over bet for me.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 59.5 Rec Yards (-115)
While I miss the days of us being able to get his prop at 17.5, the market has yet to treat Jefferson as the elite wideout he is.
I think Dallas can keep this game competitive enough to keep the Vikings' passing volume at a high enough level for JJ to see plenty of targets.
