Despite Stefon Diggs going over 89.5 receiving yards in 9-of-14 games this season, the line on his receiving yardage prop (89.5) is inflated.
The Patriots aren’t the same imposing defensive matchup they were last season, especially with Stefon Gilmore now on injured reserve. However, Bill Belichick is still their head coach, and he always comes up with a defensive game plan that attempts to slow down the opposing team’s best player.
In the Bills' case, that player is Diggs.
His 111 receptions are tied for the NFL lead and the high volume is starting to take a toll on his body. He began the week on the injury report (foot), but should be good to go on Monday night. This would be the perfect game for the Bills to lean on their run game. They're also likely to welcome back John Brown.
Diggs has surprisingly struggled on deep balls this season, and as evidenced by his 11.8 yards per catch, he could need at least eight catches to clear this number. But based on his underlying metrics and the expected game flow, I have him projected for only 7.2 receptions and a median of 80.5 yards, showing a slight edge on this line.
I would bet this down to 84.5, so lock in this number at BetMGM while you can. If you don't have access to 89.5, though, here are the projected chances of Diggs going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations so you can compare to your book(s):
