Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he was 39-23 (62.9%) heading into Sunday's games and has a 242-171-5 (58.6%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Find his pick for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Vikings and Seahawks below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.
NFL Prop Bet: Vikings vs. Seahawks
- The Pick: David Moore Under 34.5 Rec Yards (-110)
- Bet Now: FanDuel
Moore is coming off of a monster Week 4 performance in which he caught three passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, but it looks like books have inflated his prop for tonight as they anticipate most of the action on the over.
I'm going to go fade him and go with the under.
Freddy Swaim has been operating as the Seahawks' No. 3 WR over the past two weeks, averaging 47% routes run per dropback compared to 35% for Moore. After his big Week 4 performance, I expect the two to essentially flip roles. I’m projecting Moore to be in the 45-55% range this week, which gives him a projection of 2.3 receptions.
With the Seahawks 6.5-point favorites and the potential for a bit of rain in Seattle, we could see the Seahawks run the ball a bit more — another factor that could lower the expected passing volume for the entire offense, further offering value on Moore’s under.
I would bet this down to 30.5, but here are my projected chances of Moore going over or under various lines so you can compare to your sportsbook:
[Bet DavidMoore's Under at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]
