NFL Prop Picks & Bets
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Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 71-50 (58.7%) so far and has a 281-203-6 (58.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his 10 (!) prop bets for Sunday's main Week 10 slate below.
Washington RB Antonio Gibson Over 15.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Gibson has cleared this number in four of his last five games. Alex Smith has been a checkdown king so far this year, which should only elevate Gibson's usage in the passing game.
J.D. McKissic is the clear pass-catching back for Washington right now, but it would not surprise me if Gibson can eat into those snaps in the future.
Packers RB Jamaal Williams Over 11.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Williams missed Week 9 on the COVID-19 list but will be ready to go for the game against the Jaguars. Due to the high winds and potential snow, I expect the Packers to lean on their running backs even more. Williams could see an extra checkdown pass or two as a result.
Eagles WR Jalen Reagor Under 3.5 Rec (+100)
Reagor offers upside with his deep threat ability, but that doesn't translate into a high target projection. With Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup this week, it will be tougher for Reagor to see enough volume to project for 4+ receptions. I like this down to -135.
Raiders WR Henry Ruggs Over 32.5 Rec Yards (-110)
We have a buy-low situation on a rookie WR this week with Ruggs. He has been disappointing, considering he was the first WR selected in the 2020 draft. However, he has been in and out of the lineup due to various injuries and should be near full health right now.
Ruggs has a wide range of outcomes, but 32.5 is a bit too low here, and I would set it closer to 37.5.
Chargers RB Joshua Kelley Under 43.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Justin Jackson's knee injury landed him on the IR, which opens the door wide open for Kelley to be the lead back.
However, Kalen Ballage and Troymaine Pope could form a three-way committee with Kelley. It's a volatile situation that means there should be some value in taking the under for Kelley here.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Rec (-112)
Allen offers a high floor in this market, hauling in 7+ passes in six of seven games with Justin Herbert. Allen is one of the best route runners in the game and is open on nearly every route.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow Under 1.5 Pass TDs (+145)
The market for Burrow's passing TDs prop is way too high right now. He faces an elite Steelers defense, and the Bengals team total is 19.5. The math doesn't check out here, and I'm projecting him for 1.5 passing TDs.
Steelers RB James Conner Under 22.5 Rec Yards (-106)
Connor hasn't been getting enough usage in the passing game to warrant this number. We should expect him to run a route on 40-45% dropbacks, and I have him projected for 2 receptions. He would likely need 3 catches to clear this number, and even then- he would have a chance to stay under. Ray-Ray McCloud has carved out a role in this offense where he sees designed screens, shovel passes that would typically go to a RB. I think it's one of the things that has contributed to Conner's lack of receiving production.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Under 62.5 Rec Yards (-110)
I would have Aiyuk's total rush and receiving yards close to this number. However, for receiving yards alone I would set it closer to 56.5.
He should draw Marshon Lattimore and the Saints defense's attention this week, making it tougher to clear 62.5 yards. I can also see Kyle Shanahan drawing up a couple of designed runs to get the ball in Aiyuk's hands.
49ers WR Richie James Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-112)
I don't expect James to come anywhere close to his 9/184/1 Week 9 performance. However, James has always been dangerous with the ball in his hands and looked a lot more polished as a wide receiver.
He will have more competition for targets with Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne back this week, but I have his projection closer to 46.5.
