Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season. His picks for Sunday's main slate are outlined below.
Note that odds are as of late Saturday and lines are subject to move, so be sure to follow him in the Action app to get alerts whenever he tracks a bet — he has a 312-230-4 (57.6%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the app.
NFL Prop Picks & Bets
Bears WR Darnell Mooney Under 40.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Mooney became the No. 2 WR in the Bears offense back in Week 4. Despite averaging an 84% routes run per dropback rate over the past eight games, he's only gone over 40+ yards in three of those games.
Mooney is heading into this matchup as a game-time decision with a knee injury. It's severe enough that he didn't practice at all on Friday.
I would project him going under this number 55% of the time, but considering he may be playing at less than 100% or limited playing time, I love the under here.
Bengals QB Brandon Allen Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-210)
I realize it's no fun to eat -210 of chalk, but there is quite a bit of value in the steep price, as I have the true odds of being closer to -290.
The Bengals' team total is 14.5 here, translating to about a 1.5-touchdown projection for the team. I'm giving Allen a 73.5% share of the team's offensive TDs, which is among the highest on the week, and I am still showing a ton of value on this prop.
The Dolphins defense has only allowed four of the 11 QBs they've faced to throw for two-plus touchdowns. I wouldn't put my money on Allen to be one of the few to join that list.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 Rec (-140)
Taylor returns from the COVID-19 list and should have a big day rushing the ball against a porous Texans defense. However, Nyheim Hines will still dominate the passing down work and limit Tayor's usage as a result. Taylor has only hauled in 3+ passes in three of his 10 games this season. I would set the true odds for this prop closer to -185.
Texans TE Darren Fells Under 16.5 Rec Yards (-115)
The Texans are now operating with a four-way committee at tight end with Darren Fells, Jordan Akins, Pharaoh Brown and Kahale Warring.
This has resulted in Fells being the primary blocking TE, and a sharp decline in his routes run over the past three games (35% to 21% to 13%). I'm showing a 63% chance he goes under this number.
Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert Under 26.5 Rec Yards (-105)
Eifert warranted this number when backup TE James O'Shaughnessy was out for Week 11. However, with O'Shaughnessy back along with DJ Chark and (potentially) Chris Conley, there is too much competition for Mike Glennon's 237 projected passing yards.
Raiders RB Devontae Booker Under 68.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Booker gets the start for the injured Josh Jacobs. He should see a fairly big workload considering backups Jalen Richard and Theo Riddick specialize in passing down work.
However, this number seems way too high. The Jets have a solid run defense and have allowed the fourth-lowest success rate on running plays. Booker might not be efficient enough to clear this number despite the potential for 14+ carries.
Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow Over 35.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Renfrow finds himself in a great spot here. The Jets have struggled against slot receivers, as seen by some of the recent box scores by WRs who run 50% of their routes from the slot: Keenan Allen (16/145/1), Jakobi Meyers (12/169/0) and Cole Beasley (11/112/0).
The Jets blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and Renfrow (along with Darren Waller) are likely to be Carr's safety valves. Nelson Agholor has been dealing with an ankle injury that forced him to miss two practices this week. He's likely playing at less than 100% and that may result in an extra target or two going Renfrow's way.
Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders Over 1.5 Rec (-157)
The Saints didn't have to do much to put away the Kendall Hinton-led Broncos last week, so it's important not to put too much weight on Sanders' 1/4/0 stat line.
He should bounce back in a more competitive game, and I'm projecting him closer to 2.5 receptions. I have the true odds for Sanders 2+ receptions being closer to -210.
Browns TE Austin Hooper Over 2.5 Rec (-118)
Hooper saw his routes run per dropback dip from his season average of 73% to 62% (Week 11) and 53% (Week 12). It's fair to wonder if Andy Janovich's absence the past two games was the reason why Hooper stayed in to block a bit more.
Janovich makes his return this week, which means we might see Hooper's usage jump back up into the 70% range. The Browns being 4.5-point underdogs means we will likely see a bit more volume in the passing game, which also helps Hooper's chances of clearing this number.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf Under 5.5 Rec (+105)
I realize it's no fun betting against Metcalf, but I think there is definite value here.
The Seahawks have become a more balanced offense of late as their running back health and defensive play has improved. Considering they are 10.5-point favorites against Colt McCoy and the Giants, it's unlikely they will need to throw much to win.
Metcalf will be going up against the Giants' top corner, James Bradberry, leaving Tyler Lockett with the potential mismatch. I can see a scenario where Metcalf puts up 100+ yards on four to five receptions, but I don't think the volume will be there for six-plus catches. That's why the reception market is the play here.
Rams QB Jared Goff Over 0.5 Inteceptions (+110)
I had to do a double-take when I saw this, considering Goff has turned the ball over TEN times over the last four games.
Interceptions are very tough to project, but Goff should be closer to -145 on this prop. The market has him projected for 36 pass attempts, which is much higher than his median of 32 attempts per game this season. The added volume elevates his chances of throwing a pick.
Patriots WR Damiere Byrd Under 50.5 Rec Yds (-110)
The market is way too high on Byrd's yardage again this week. He's been an every-down player all season long (95% routes run per dropback) but has only cleared this number in four of 11 games.
Patriots TE Ryan Izzo Over 8.5 Rec Yards (-120)
I couldn't pass this prop up.
Izzo is essentially the Patriot's only TE right now. He played 95% of the snaps and ran a route on 71% of Cam Newton's dropbacks last week. There is always the chance he catches one pass and fails to clear this number. However, 10 of his 12 receptions have gone for 9+ yards this season.
Here are the three different outcomes for this prop, according to my model:
- 0 catches: 20%
- 1+ catches but fails to clear 8.5: 18%
- Goes for 9+ yards: 62%
