NFL Prop Picks & Bets
Lions WR Marvin Jones Under 65.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Jones is coming off of a huge 8/116/1 game, which is why the market for him could be a bit inflated this week. I'm bullish on the Lions offense with Darrell Bevell running it at a faster pace after the firing of HC Matt Patricia.
Still, this number is way too high.
Danny Amendola is back, Mohamed Sanu is starting to command targets in this offense, pass-catching back D'Andre Swift may return, and T.J. Hockenson is dominating. Stafford has enough options to spread the ball around more, and it's lowered my projection for Jones.
Packers WR Allen Lazard Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)
Lazard has seen his playing time increase in each of his three games since his return. I think we see that trend continue, and I don't think the market is factoring that in here.
Titans TE Anthony Firkser Over 14.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Over 1.5 Receptions (-115)
Firkser predictably went off for 5/51/0 in Week 13 with Jonnu Smith out of the lineup.
With Jonnu making a return this week, we should expect Firkser to return to his 50% routes run role he's had since Week 5. I have it at a 75% chance he gets 2+ receptions and a 65% chance he gets 15+ yards in his usual role.
Titans WR Cameron Batson Under 18.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Batson has been running a steady 34% routes run rate dating back to Week 9. Over that five-game span, he's only gone over 18.5 once. I don't expect the Titans to be forced into a pass-heavy game script against the Jaguars that would elevate Batson's upside here.
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald Under 28.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Fitz makes his return from COVID-19 this week, but is expected to be limited after reportedly losing 10 pounds while fighting off the virus.
His veteran leadership will likely give the Cardinals a boost this week, but it could be a game or two before he returns to his usual role. I could see him going under this number even if he hauls in three catches tomorrow, which gives us a bit of a cushion.
Giants QB Daniel Jones Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Daniel Jones ended up only missing one game due to his injured hamstring. I like his upside in this market, considering his hamstring may force him to throw instead of running when a play breaks down.
The Giants are also unlikely to draw up as many designed run plays for him. I'm going to limit my bet size a bit here as he does carry some in-game aggravation risk.
Texans TE Darren Fells Under 14.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Another week, another Darren Fells under.
The Texans are using Fells to block more and are using Jordan Akins as the main pass-catching TE. They will likely give Kahale Warring even more work over the final few games, giving the Fells under even more value from now on.
Jets TE Ryan Griffin Under 14.5 Rec Yards (-110)
The only reason there's a market for Griffin is that he "went off" for 2/31/0 last week. His routes run spiked up to 39%, but should come back down to the low 30s this week.
That amount of usage gives him a projection of 1.0 receptions and a median of 6.5 yards. If Jamison Crowder is ruled out, it could bump his projection up closer to 9.5 yards, but I would still like the under.
