Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 66-42 (61.1%) so far and has a 273-191-5 (58.8%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app. Find his 10 (!) prop bets for Sunday's main Week 9 slate below.
NFL Prop Bets & Picks
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Broncos at Falcons Props
Jerry Jeudy Over 47.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Drew Lock came to life in the second half of last week's thrilling 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. I think he takes that confidence into their Week 9 matchup, which could mean a big game from Jeudy. The Falcons defense has allowed ten different WRs to clear 80+ yards through eight games this season. Jeudy carries an average depth of target of 13.7 yards, with 5.2 yards after catch rate. It's a combo that gives him a high weekly floor in terms of yardage, and I like this prop up to 51.5.
Bears at Titans Props
Ryan Tannehill Over 9.5 Rush Yards (-109)
Ryan Tannehill struggled against the Bengals last week, going 2-for-8 with 20 passing yards while under pressure with an interception and one sack. He had the lowest QB Rating under pressure last week (0.0), and it could be a result of missing stud OL Taylor Lewan, who is out for season. I could see him choosing to use his legs a bit more this week once he feels pressure, and it's why this prop seems a bit too low. I would bet it up to 11.5.
Kalif Raymond Over 22.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Raymond will get a boost in playing time with Adam Humphries out. The Titans lean on Derrick Henry a ton, which allows them to set up play action. It allows a player like Raymond, the team's top deep threat, to get scripted deep targets. He could clear this number with a single catch, which is why I like the over. I would bet it up to 25.5.
Lions at Vikings Props
Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions (-139)
We can overlook Thielen's 3/27/0 box score last week, considering Kirk Cousins only attempted 14 passes — the result of high winds and Dalvin Cook being the Vikings' entire offense in their 28-22 win. The Vikings should have a much more pass-friendly game plan this week, and I have Thielen projected for 5.6 receptions. I would bet this up to -155.
Ravens at Colts Props
Michael Pittman Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Pittman returned from the IR last week with a quiet 1/6/0 box score. He ran a route on 56% of dropbacks. However, with T.Y. Hilton expected to miss Sunday's game, I'm projecting his routes run to shoot up into the 75-80% range. With stud CB Marlon Humphrey out and CB Jimmy Smith questionable, this matchup is a bit less imposing. I'm projecting Pittman for 43 yards and would bet this up to 36.5.
Panthers at Chiefs Props
Mecole Hardman Over 36.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Mecole Hardman saw his routes run per dropback jump up from 38% (his average from the previous two games) up to 66% last week. He turned the increase in playing time into a massive 7/96/1 receiving line. I expect him to see similar playing time with Sammy Watkins out again and have him projected for 45 yards. I would bet it up to 40.5.
More Prop Bets
- Jaguars RB James Robinson Under 72.5 Rush Yards (-106)[Bet to 69.5 at BetMGM]
- Chargers RB Joshua Kelley Over 28.5 Rush Yards (-106)[Bet to 33.5 at BetMGM]
- Raiders WR Bryan Edwards Under 30.5 Rec Yards (-115)[Bet to 26.5 at BetMGM]
- Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)[Bet to -150 at FanDuel]
