Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop for every primetime game throughout the 2020 season — he's 2-0 so far and has a 203-140-3 (59.2%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Find his picks for the Monday Night Football doubleheader below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.
NFL Prop Bets for Monday Night Football
Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-110) | |
Under 242.5 Pass Yards (-110) |
Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Matchup: Titans at Broncos | Kickoff: 10:20 p.m. ET on ESPN
I'm doubling down on the reason I liked CeeDee Lamb's over on Sunday Night Football: Rookies have continued to impress in their NFL debuts, despite no preseason games this season. The public didn't hasn't had a chance to see them flash their potential yet, which has kept the market on their props a bit too low.
Right behind Lamb, Jeudy was my second-highest graded WR of the 2020 NFL draft. While Lamb has elite after the catch ability, Jeudy has elite route-running and separation ability — it's why he should make a swift transition to the NFL.
I like Jeudy's over tonight even if Courtland Sutton (shoulder) is able to suit up. If Sutton is able to play tonight, it could be in a limited fashion or even as a decoy. If he's ruled out, I would love this prop even more.
Here are my projected chances of Jeudy going over 38.5 based on Sutton's availability:
- With Sutton In: 56.6%
- With Sutton Out: 59.1%
It means this number is likely to rise in the event Sutton is ruled out, so I set up my player prop simulator to calculate the chances of Sutton playing, which I set as a true 50/50, so current chances of Jeudy going over this number is 57.4%
I have the median closer to 46.5 and would bet it up to 42.5.
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Giants QB Daniel Jones Under 242.5 Pass Yards (-110)
Matchup: Steelers at Giants | Kickoff: 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let's start with a quick look at how quarterbacks have fared in Week 1. There have been 14 games played so far, and here are the passing yardages of the 28 starting QBs:
- Average: 252.1
- Median: 247.5
So far, Week 1 has been in line with what we would typically expect in terms of passing yardage. Simultaneously, we can speculate that offenses are behind defenses right now, given the limited offseason and the lack of real crowd noise. We could see passing yardage climb significantly in the coming weeks, but I'm not making any radical adjustments in how I'm projecting MNF players.
The case against Jones on Monday night is pretty straight forward: He's facing arguably the best defense in the NFL.
The Steelers allowed only five QBs to throw for more than 200 yards last year (31.3%), and that rate drops to 21.4% (3-of-14) after Minkah Fitzpatrick made his debut in Week 3. And only one QB managed to throw for more than 200 yards against the Steelers over the second half of the season (Jared Goff in Week 10).
Do we think Jones will be the QB who is finally able to overmatch this defense? Jones himself cleared the 242 number in only 5-of-16 (41.7%) games last season. He should improve in Year 2, but not enough to bet the over on a number this high against an elite defense.
Defenses typically regress closer to league average the following season — it's challenging to play at an elite level for two consecutive seasons because a lot has to go right. In the Steelers' case, though, they should be able to pick up where they left off in 2019. They may be even better this season as they return all starters and could improve due to a few other factors:
- Stephon Tuitt is healthy after missing 10 games last season (he had an 89.1 Pro Football Focus grade before going down).
- Devin Bush flashed potential as a rookie and should improve in Year 2, helping fill the hole left by Ryan Shazier.
- Minkah Fitzpatrick was able to make an immediate impact as a game-changer despite coming over in-season last year. Imagine having an entire offseason to learn the system and having him start Week 1?
I have the median for Jones passing yards closer to 224.5 for Monday night — that gives him a 61% chance of going under 242.5. I would bet this number down to 236.5, where the under would still have a 56% chance of cashing.
