Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 450-344-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Prop Picks: Bears-Steelers
Najee Harris Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-114)
A considerable part of my projections process is based on the expected game script. Therefore, rush attempt props are primarily a bet on the expected game script, rather than the combination of game script and how efficient a player will be.
The Steelers are 7-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), which means we should see them in a game script that allows them to run the ball at a higher rate. Based on their season-to-date pass/rush splits, we would expect them to have a total of 29-30 rush attempts in a game they are favored in by seven points.
That is not to say I'm expecting them to win tonight's game by seven points, or even that they will win it at all. But if they were to play this game 10,000 times, the median margin of victory would likely be right around seven. So based on that assumption, I'm projecting the Steelers for 29 total rush attempts.
Najee Harris has consistently seen about 80% of the team's carries this season, which would translate to 23.2 rush attempts. A sensible line would be closer to 21.5 rush attempts, so I'm seeing about two rush attempts of value in this market.
These rush attempt markets are critical to bet the best number, though, so I would only want it at 19.5 — but would bet the over to -140.
Pick: Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-114) at FanDuel
