Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 493-388-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Cardinals-Rams Prop Bet
Van Jefferson Under 4.5 Receptions
I’m projecting Jefferson closer to 4.0 receptions against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football, which would give him a 62% chance of going under this line. He’s only gone over 4.5 receptions in two of 12 games this season. Clearly his upside is higher right now with Robert Woods out for the year, but Odell Beckham Jr.’s role is only going to grow within the offense.
I think the sweet spot for Jefferson’s usage was Weeks 10-13, when Woods was out of the lineup and Beckham was getting up to speed. That window is likely closed and I expect Beckham to run a route on more than 80% of Matthew Stafford’s drop backs tonight, which should eat into Jefferson’s share. I would bet this down to -155.
Pick: Under 4.5 Receptions (-130) at BetMGM
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
