Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 443-339-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Michael Carter Prop Bet
Under 49.5 Rush Yards
Fourth-round pick Michael Carter is one of the top running backs of the 2021 rookie class. I have hinted at his upcoming fantasy football breakout after New York’s Week 6 bye.
However, Carter's fantasy value is centered mainly around his receiving usage — as seen by his past two games with receiving lines of 8/67/0 and 9/95/0. With the Jets being 10.5-point dogs tonight and facing the league's top run defense in the Colts, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, I'm expecting the Jets to shy away from the running game and continue to use check downs to Carter as an extension of the running game.
QB Mike White's aDot of 4.1 yards ranked second-lowest in the NFL last week, so the Colts will be able to game plan accordingly and stack the box. That will make it even more difficult for Carter to break off chunk gains in the running game.
The Jets have faced a fairly easy run defense schedule this year, only going up against one defense that ranks in the top half of run defense DVOA. Facing the league’s top-ranked run D should be a rude awakening for Carter tonight.
I'm projecting Carter to get 12.5 carries tonight, which would give him a 57% chance of going under 49.5 rushing yards based on his stats to date. However, once you factor in that he is going up against the league's top run defense — led by DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard — I'm estimating Carter has a 60-62% chance of going under this number tonight.
I would bet this down to 47.5
Pick: Michael Carter Under 49.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
