When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Jameis Winston Over 201.5 Passing Yards
The Saints have remained committed to the ground game, with a 54.7% team rushing percentage, highest in the NFL this season. However, I predict New Orleans will need to pivot away to more of a passing game tonight in Seattle.
The Seahawks rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, but have improved their run defense over the past few weeks. The Seahawks now rank 16th in run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and just held Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris to 3.4 yards per carry.
Seattle’s run defense at home is much stronger, which will lead to Winston needing to pass more — as he has the past two weeks. Winston has crested this total in each of the past two games, including a season-high 279 yards against Washington in Week 5.
We project Winston for 211.5 yards, a full 10 yards over this total. This is a 7-rated prop on Sean Koerner’s PlayerProp Tool on FantasyLabs.
Alex Collins Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
Collins enters this game with a questionable designation due to a groin injury. He also is facing one of the NFL’s best run defenses, ranking second in DVOA. New Orleans has only allowed 275 rushing yards on the season, for an average of just 55 yards per game.
Running back Rashaad Penny is scheduled to return from injured reserve tonight, adding another rusher to the mix to limit carries for Collins.
Teams have struggled to run the ball against the Saints every week, and coming off a bye, I don’t see an injured Collins reaching the opposition average by himself. As home underdogs, game script could also work in our favor if the Seahawks are playing from behind.
Freddie Swain Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
I'm going back to Swain’s receiving yardage over total with cornerback Marshon Lattimore likely to limit the production of wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Swain saw a season-high 78.1% snap share last week against PIttsburgh, and tied his prior best with 28 routes run. According to PlayerProfiler, Swain ranks 12th among all wideouts with a 5.69 average cushion. He also ranks top 25 in positional efficiency with 2.17 fantasy points per target.
Swain is again projecting well on our FantasyLabs Player Props Tool. We estimated Swain for 20.6 receiving yards, a full four yards above this total. This prop rates as an 8-rated prop per Sean Koerner’s Player Prop Tool.
