When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in 30 states — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Jalen Guyton Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
The 2019 UDFA has big play ability at 6-foot-1, 212 lbs and 4.44 speed. With a robust 12.4 yards per reception, Guyton has the ability to hit this over in just one play. Guyton has enjoyed a solid 65% snap share, and has a five-target, three-reception game already this season.
Las Vegas ranks 12th in pass defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders, but hasn't played three poor passing attacks in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami. The Raiders have also allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has enjoyed much success against the Raiders, averaging 320 passing yards and 28.9 fantasy points in his two games last season.
We project Guyton for 26.5 receiving yards at FantasyLabs, a full 10 yards over this prop, good for an 8 out of 10 grade from Koerner.
Bryan Edwards Over 2.5 Receptions
The second-year receiver has become a forgotten wide receiver in the Raiders passing attack behind Henry Ruggs and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. However, he still has found consistent production, cresting this prop in each of the first three games.
The surprising production of Ruggs actually provides the perfect shade for Edwards, who will need to be involved for Las Vegas to earn this AFC West road upset. At 6-foot-3, Edwards is a great red zone target who is averaging 21 yards per reception, seventh among all wide receivers.
I expect Brandon Staley's defense to focus their attention on Las Vegas tight end Darren Waller, with safety Derwin James as the main stopper. This should create more opportunities for Edwards.
In a game with a total of 51.5, there should plenty of points and passing for Las Vegas. We have Edwards total at 3.3 receptions, 32% above this prop. This is a 8/10 bet on our FantasyLabs PlayerProp tool.
Jared Cook Under 3.5 Receptions
Cook's production has been mediocre this year, ranking 14th in receptions (10) and 15th in receiving yards (111) through three games. At 34 years old, Cook (135 snaps) has ceded opportunities to both Donald Parham (106 snaps) and Stephen Anderson (49 snaps).
He now faces a Raiders team that allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The only game this season where Cook beat this total, was in Week 1 when running back Austin Ekeler saw zero targets. With both Ekeler and Guyton likely to play a role in the offense, we project minimal production for the veteran tight end.
We project Cook's total at 3.1 receptions, 11% below this prop total. This is an 8-rated prop on Sean Koerner's FantasyLabs PlayerProp tool.
