When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Tony Pollard Over 30.5 Rushing Yards
Ezekiel Elliott's days as a three-down workhorse running back are over. Elliott's snap share dropped from 84% to 71% over the first two weeks. In that same span, Tony Pollard's snap share rose from 24% to 34%.
Last week in Dallas' 20-17 win at Los Angeles, Pollard was the team's leading rusher with 109 yards on just 13 carries. Pollard almost doubled Elliott's yards per carry, averaging 8.4 per attempt.
Pollard already has three breakaway runs of 15 yards or more, ranking second among all running backs entering Week 3. This is a simple volume play, with Pollard now getting enough touches to find consistent weekly production.
This is an 8-rated prop on Sean Koerner's Player Prop Tool on FantasyLabs, with a projection of 37 total rushing yards.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Despite ceding rushing work, Ezekiel Elliott has still stayed involved in the passing game. He has averaged 3.5 receptions in each of the past two years, yet has only four total receptions through two games.
Elliott has been particularly active in the passing games at home. Since the 2018 season, he has averaged over five targets and four receptions per game at AT&T Stadium.
Entering Week 2, the Eagles have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. We project Elliott for 21.6 receiving yards, which is 31% higher than the 16.5-yard projection on PrizePicks.
DeVonta Smith Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
Smith will likely draw Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs, who ranks 22nd in Pro Football Focus' coverage ratings. Smith crested this total in Week 1 against Atlanta, but struggled mightily at home against San Francisco last week.
In a tough intra-divisional matchup against Diggs, Smith will face similar resistance much like Tampa Bay's Mike Evans (3 receptions, 24 receiving yards) in Week 1. The rookie does not yet have the ability to get open (like Keenan Allen in Week 2), and will fall short of this total in a MNF game against Philadelphia's rivals.
We project Smith at 53.2 receiving yards, just below this total, but project other receivers such as Jalen Reagor to be a bigger factor.
