Our Director of Predictive Analytics is highlighting his favorite NFL player props for every primetime game this season. He has a 436-333-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him to receive notifications about his picks.
Find his player prop pick for Packers vs. Cardinals on Thursday Night Football below.
Packers vs. Cardinals Props
Christian Kirk Over 43.5 Rec Yards
Kirk's prop offers some hidden value tonight, and I think it's important to lock it in ASAP.
For last week’s TNF matchup, I picked Donovan Peoples-Jones under 2.5 receptions (+110) as my primetime prop — nearly forgetting that part of the reason I liked it was because of the slight chance Odell Beckham Jr. was able to suit up (he was closer to doubtful). Sure enough, Beckham was a surprise active, and it sent DPJ receptions under to drop down to -180 at most books. DPJ then tweaked his groin, was unable to play, and any bets on him were “voided.”
Why do I mention this? Because DeAndre Hopkins’ hamstring injury has an impact on how I'm projecting Kirk tonight. Hopkins has yet to practice on the short week and is expected to play tonight, barring any pre-game setbacks. I'm under the assumption that Hopkins will not only suit up tonight, but be close to 100% healthy and play his usual complement of snaps. But there are scenarios where he is limited or ends up being a pre-game scratch tonight. I plotted out three different scenarios — and their likelihood of coming to fruition — as well as how I would project Kirk for each one:
Scenario 1
- Hopkins is active, 100% healthy, and plays his usual role (70% chance)
- Kirk: 47.5 projected rec yds (55% chance to go over 43.5)
Scenario 2
- Hopkins is active, about 70% healthy, and plays more of a "decoy" role (25% chance)
- Kirk: 50.5 projected rec yds (58.5% chance to go over 43.5)
Scenario 3
- Hopkins has a pre-game setback and is inactive (5% chance)
- Kirk: 60.5 projected rec yds (63% chance to go over 43.5)
Kirk has gone over this number in five of seven games this year. So even if Hopkins is 100% tonight, Kirk still offers value on the over. It's the other scenarios that offer sneaky upside in locking in this prop now. I would bet this up to 46.5.
Pick: Christian Kirk Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at FanDuel
