Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 494-390-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Saints-Bucs
Taysom Hill Over 45.5 Rush Yards
Hill was made to crush rushing props. He’s a quarterback with an injured finger on his throwing hand who is going to lean on his rushing ability early and often. Given his prowess on the ground and injury, I expect him to continue being even more willing to scramble out of trouble and rely on his legs.
He’s cleared this number in four of his six career starts — I feel the market is still trying to catch up to where to set his baseline for rushing yards and that it will eventually settle somewhere in the mid-to-low 50s.
Tampa Bay has had a solid run defense this season but Josh Allen ran for 109 yards against the Bucs just last week.
I’m projecting Hill closer to 51.5 rush yards here and was able to grab this when it was 41.5 yards yesterday. I expect the line to close somewhere around 47.5 this evening as it continues to rise — I would play it up to 46.5.
Pick: Over 45.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
