Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has been an industry leader in NFL player projections for years. And by leveraging those projections in our Action Labs Props Tool, we can easily identify potential edges on NFL player props.
That's exactly what we've done with PrizePicks props for the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers. Now let's dive into the trio of overs we're playing.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Props
Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rush Yards
Like all three of these picks, we're playing this over based on edges according to Koerner's projections, and he has Mahomes rushing for 20 yards on Thursday night. With the next-lowest line in the market sitting at 17.5, we're getting two yards of relative value on PrizePicks.
It also helps that Mahomes averages 20.8 rushing yards on four attempts per game, and he has cleared 15.5 rushing yards in seven of 14 games this season. That includes Week 3, when he rushed for 45 yards against the Chargers.
Austin Ekeler Over 49.5 Rush Yards
Editor's note: Austin Ekeler (ankle) is questionable, though is expected to play on Thursday Night Football.
Koerner is projecting the Chargers running back to rush for 54 yards on Thursday night, which is right in line with his line of 53.5 — but that means we're getting a few yards of value on PrizePicks.
Ekeler is averaging 56.2 rushing yards this season and has cleared 49.5 in 10 of 14 games this season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 9.5 Rec Yards
This is another instance of playing the numbers.
Koerner is projecting the Chiefs running back for 14.6 receiving yards, and with the next-lowest line in the market sitting at 13.5, we're getting a few yards of value on PrizePicks.
Edwards-Helaire has averaged 13.4 receiving yards this season and has cleared 9.5 in five of his eight games so far.
