When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on FantasyLabs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Thursday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Football Team.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for TNF
Taylor Heinicke Under 22.5 Rushing Yards
With Ryan Fitzpatrick now sidelined for 6-8 weeks with a hip injury, the 28-year-old Heinicke assumes the starting quarterback role for Washington.
Heinicke's 4.67 speed brings a full "Konami Code" dynamic to Washington, making him a threat to crest his rushing yards prop on any week. However, we only have Heinicke projected for 18 rushing yards against the Giants, projecting a 17.7% value under the 22.5 yard total on PrizePicks.
Veteran Kyle Allen is now the only other quarterback on the Washington roster, placing a greater emphasis on Heinicke's health. Including last year's playoff game against Tampa Bay, Heinicke has averaged only 17 rushing yards per game. In Week 1, he faced a Chargers team that allowed 342 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in 2020.
In a game with the lowest over/under total on the Week 2 slate at 40.5 points (compare NFL odds here), this projects as a defensive battle between two bitter NFC East rivals. We're backing the under 22.5 rushing yards for Heinicke.
FantasyLabs' Props Tool Grade: 10 out of 10
Adam Humphries Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
There is much uncertainly in the Washington target tree, specifically at the WR2 position. Cam Sims, Adam Humphries and rookie Dyami Brown all have the opportunity to step forward as the secondary wide receiver option to Terry McLaurin. This week, we are targeting 28-year-old slot man Adam Humphries to get over this low receiving yardage prop.
New York will certainly prioritize its defensive plan around limiting McLaurin and Washington tight end Logan Thomas. I expect elite cornerback James Bradberry to focus on McLaurin, leaving Humphries to work the short to intermediate area of the field.
Last week, Denver wide receivers Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick all ended with totals well over this 24.5 yard line.
We project Humphries at 30 receiving yards, 18.3% higher than the PrizePicks total of 24.5 yards.
FantasyLabs' Props Tool Grade: 7 out of 10
J.D. McKissic Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Staying with the theme of a conservative Washington passing attack, we see value in J.D. McKissic's Over 15.5 receiving yards prop.
In 2020, the Giants allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Last year, McKissic tallied the following receiving stat lines:
- 6 receptions, 43 receiving yards
- 9 receptions, 65 receiving yards
Even with Antonio Gibson taking a larger role in the passing game, this line is still too low for an accomplished pass catcher such as McKissic. We project McKissic for 19 receiving yards, 22.5% higher than this PrizePicks line.
FantasyLabs' Props Tool Grade: 8 out of 10
