Week 7 of the NFL season gets started tonight with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Let's take a look at my favorite Thursday Night Football prop picks and my NFL predictions for October 17, where I'm looking to fade some of the mainstream trends and back these two teams to pick up the scoring in the second half of the game.
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday Night Football
This is going against all the trends: primetime unders, second half unders, as well as Sean Koerner's full game under, and it might even be a better live bet than a pregame bet, but I still like it for a few reasons.
The Broncos are listed as 3-point road favorites in tonight's contest, as well as -150 favorites on the moneyline, so there's a good chance we'll see Denver carry a lead into the second half. That means, we will likely see New Orleans fall into into the following run/pass splits late, which should naturally stop the clock more:
Saints Run/Pass Splits
- Pass 32% when leading 2H
- Pass 72% when trailing 2H
- 40% differential (2nd-most in NFL)
The difference between the Saints' pace of play when they are leading vs. trailing may also be a significant factor. When they have a lead, the Saints average 31.9 seconds per play. However, that number jumps all the way up to 22.8 seconds per play when they are trailing, a meaningful 9-second differential.
In comparison, the Broncos average 28 seconds per play when they have the lead, and they average 25 seconds per play when playing from behind, which is only a 3-second difference. Much of this analysis hinges on the notion of Denver carrying a lead into the second half of this contest, but assuming tonight's matchup plays out as the oddsmakers anticipate, we should see a significant uptick in pace down the stretch.
The Broncos' run/pass splits also somewhat bode well for the second half over (if they are winning). They pass the ball slightly more than league average with a lead in the second half (DEN: 45% vs. League Average: 43%). And when they do decide to run the ball, New Orleans is 26th in defensive DVOA against the rush (compared to 8th vs. pass), which should lead to more late game offensive efficiency for the Broncos' offense.
Pick: Second Half Over 17.5 (-110, bet365)
