When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between his projections and the Thursday Night Football props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks: Ravens-Dolphins
Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson is playing his best football of the season, and his rushing yards are coming in bunches. He has consecutive games of 88 and 120 rushing yards, and has averaged 80.3 rushing yards over the past four games.
The Dolphins defense ranks 20th in scheduled-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and is particularly vulnerable to rushing quarterbacks. They rank 17th in rushing yards allowed to opposing signal-callers, but haven't played a very challenging slate of opponents. Their only real rushing challenge has been Josh Allen, who just totaled 55 rushing yards at home in a comfortable win.
We project Jackson for 69 rushing yards — 7.5 more than this PrizePicks total. The majority of the market has this line at 63.5, providing an additional extra yard of value.
Myles Gaskin Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
This is a strict play on volume, as Gaskin saw more than 80% of the snap share in Week 9.
Despite facing a Baltimore rushing defense that's allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, Gaskin should be able to crest 40 rushing yards, even with just 12-15 carries. He saw 20 carries last week at home against Houston, and with Malcolm Brown still on injured reserve, Gaskin is the main option for Miami.
Despite splitting time with Brown earlier this season, Gaskin has flashed his big-play potential from last season. Most of the market has this line at 40.5 or 41.5 rushing yards, providing extra value at PrizePicks. Koerner projects Gaskin for 48 rushing yards.
Marquise Brown Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
The last team we saw Marquise Brown in Miami, he was piling up fantasy points.
✨ HOLLYWOOD ✨
Lamar Jackson to Marquise Brown for the 47-yard TD! 😎@Ravens — 14@MiamiDolphins — 0pic.twitter.com/JRBPfE0yR0
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 8, 2019
Brown’s total is 57.5 receiving yards, a significantly lower number than the 62.5 total elsewhere in the market. He's translating 8.6 targets per game into 5.8 receptions, with an average of 14.8 yards per reception.
Miami’s pass defense ranks fourth-worst in scheduled-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and has allowed the second-most total receiving yards to wide receivers. In short? The Dolphins pass defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season.
The development of rookie Rashod Bateman has diversified the passing game, which is why I’m backing the receiving total instead of the reception total. But Brown’s explosive speed makes this yardage total reachable on minimal receptions. He has hit this total in six of the Ravens eight games.
We project Brown for 59.5 receiving yards in our props tool.
