Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL player props for Seahawks vs. WFT in the Week 12 edition of Monday Night Football. He has a 480-369-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Seahawks-Washington Prop Bet
Antonio Gibson Under 67.5 Rush Yards
I locked in Gibson at under 70.5 rush yards a couple days ago, but I still like this line at 67.5. Washington has leaned on Gibson heavily the past two games, racking up 24 and 19 rush attempts in Weeks 10 and 11, respectively.
However, as 1-point underdogs, Gibson's workload could be limited if Washington ends up in a trailing game script. The Seahawks have a pass funnel defense as they rank 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass and ninth against the run. I expect the Football Team to be a bit more pass-heavy here, especially considering they are likely to get back Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas.
I'm projecting Gibson closer to 61.5 rush yards and would bet down to 65.5.
Pick: Under 67.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Alex Collins Over 44.5 Rush Yards
The Seahawks ruled out Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer, which means they will only dress three running backs tonight in Collins, DeeJay Dallas and Josh Johnson. I expect Collins to dominate the rushing work and for Dallas to give Collins a breather on passing downs.
Collins has been limited to just 10 rush attempts each of the past two games, mainly due to the Seahawks losing by 10+ points in each. However, they're 1-point favorites tonight, which means he's much more likely to have a positive game script that provides him with 12 to 15 rush attempts here.
I'm projecting this closer to 53.5 and would bet it up to 47.5
Pick: Over 44.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Adam Humphries Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
Curtis Samuel is expected to play tonight, which should cut into the playing time of both DeAndre Carter and Humphries. Logan Thomas is also expected to return, and he could cut into Humphries' target share, considering their route trees somewhat overlap.
As if there weren't already enough reasons to like this under, Humphries himself is dealing with a hip injury that could limit him (or even prevent him from playing, as he is still questionable). I'm projecting this closer to 16.5 and would bet it down to 19.5.
Pick: Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
