Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL prop for the Cardinals-Rams wild-card matchup on Monday night. He has a 533-421-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
NFL Props: Cardinals-Rams
A.J. Green Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Green offers sneaky value in clearing his receiving yards prop on Monday night.
He's already topped this number in both meetings against the Rams this season: In Week 4 (5/67/1) and Week 14 (7/102/0). One reason he's fared well against the Rams is likely their heavy use of zone coverage (second-highest rate), considering Green has fared much better against zone coverage this season (data via PFF):
- vs. zone: 2.23 yards per route run
- vs. man: 0.95 yards per route run
The Rams' heavy use of zone also means shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey doesn't shadow a specific wide receiver (most of the time), so I don't expect Green to warrant shadow coverage from Ramsey.
According to Sports Info Solutions, curls/posts/fly routes make up 38.5% of Green's route tree (eighth-highest rate out of 139 wideouts). The Rams have allowed a league-worst 116.4 QB rating to those routes to opposing WRs on the right side (the side Green typically lines up on).
All of this extra digging makes me feel confident in my bullish projection for Green, which is closer to 51.5 yards (see more of Koerner's projections here).
Pick: Over 42.5 Rec Yards (-110) at FanDuel | Bet to: 45.5
